Prepping for the 2018 Legislative Session

Research Report

Prepping for the 2018 Legislative Session

Selected Research for State Budget Analysts

Abstract

To help analysts craft next year’s state budgets, and to help reporters explain them and the public understand them, we compiled the Urban Institute’s and the Tax Policy Center’s best state-focused research in one place. The research in this compendium will help analysts better evaluate agency requests, make recommendations, and respond to questions from their governors and legislatures.

Overview

The report outlines the most informative reports, briefs, blog posts, and interactive data features on 10 issue subjects and highlights what’s most consequential for state-finance audiences. Issues are divided into the following sections:

All the work discussed in the report are available on urban.org and taxpolicycenter.org. Every publication cited is listed and hyperlinked below in the order they appear in the report.

Federal tax reform and budget proposals 

Federal Tax Changes
Collection: Preparing for the 2017 Tax Debate
Brief: Repeal of the State and Local Tax Deduction
Brief: How Would Repeal of the State and Local Tax Deduction Affect Taxpayers Who Pay the AMT?
Brief: What Federal Business Tax Changes Mean for the States
Report: The Implications of What We Know and Don’t Know about President Trump’s Tax Plan
TaxVox post: A new dynamic analysis confirms estimates that a Trump-like tax plan would add trillions to the deficit
Report: An Analysis of the House GOP Tax Plan
Report: Dynamic Analysis of the House GOP Tax Plan: An Update
TaxVox post: White House and Hill GOP leaders kill the border tax, but disclose few other tax bill details
TaxVox post: My advice to the Senate Finance Panel about tax reform

Federal Budget Changes
Brief: State Budgets in the Trump Era
Event Video: State of the States: Budgeting in the Trump Era
TaxVox post: Trump’s budget could create chaos in the states
Urban Wire post: What would happen to SNAP if proposed $191 billion cut became law?
Urban Wire post: What welfare reform can teach us about proposed budget cuts to the safety net
Urban Wire post: What rural communities stand to lose from proposed housing budget cuts
Urban Wire post: Cuts to USDA’s Rural Development Agency are a blow to rural America
Urban Wire post: Trump’s budget deals a double whammy to people struggling to gain a foothold in today’s economy
Urban Wire post: The cost of homelessness will spike if Congress adopts Trump’s 2018 budget proposal
Urban Wire post: Proposed federal budget cuts threaten housing and health care partnerships

Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act, and Health Care Reform Efforts 

ACA Repeal and Reform Efforts
Report: Instead of ACA Repeal and Replace, Fix It
Urban Wire post: How to stabilize nongroup insurance markets in four easy steps
Brief: State-by-State Coverage and Government Spending Implications of the Better Care Reconciliation Act
TaxVox post: More than Medicaid: The full cost of ACA repeal and replace for states
Report: The Impact of the AHCA on Federal and State Medicaid Spending and Medicaid Coverage: An Update
Report: Who Gains and Who Loses under the American Health Care Act
Report: State-by-State Coverage and Government Spending Implications of the American Health Care Act
Brief: Implications of Partial Repeal of the ACA through Reconciliation

More Medicaid Proposals
Report: The Impact of Per Capita Caps on Federal and State Medicaid Spending
Urban Wire post: Senate health bill would lower the Medicaid per capita cap rate, causing greater state budget shortfalls
Urban Wire post: If the Senate repeal-and-replace health care bill goes forward, it would cut Medicaid just as more elderly Americans need long-term services and support
Brief: The Cost of Not Expanding Medicaid: An Updated Analysis
Brief: What if More States Expanded Medicaid in 2017? Changes in Eligibility, Enrollment, and the Uninsured
Brief: Rapid Growth in Medicaid Spending on Medications to Treat Opioid Use Disorder and Overdose
Report: Medicaid Coverage of Effective Treatment for Opioid Use Disorder
Urban Wire post: Repealing the ACA could worsen the opioid epidemic

State of Health Care
Report: Health of the States
Report: Workers Gaining Health Insurance Coverage under the ACA
Report: Who Gained Health Insurance Coverage under the ACA, and Where Do They Live?
Brief: Changes in Coverage by State and in Selected Metropolitan Areas
Report: Health Insurance Coverage in 2014: Significant Progress, but Gaps Remain
Report: A Look at Early ACA Implementation: State and National Medicaid Patterns for Adults in 2014
Brief: Medicaid/CHIP Participation Rates Rose among Children and Parents in 2015
Report: Veterans Saw Broad Coverage Gains Between 2013 and 2015

Education 

Primary and secondary education
Brief: Do Poor Kids Get Their Fair Share of School Funding?
Interactive Data Feature: School Funding: Do Poor Kids Get Their Fair Share?
Interactive Data Feature: How has education funding changed over time?
Urban Wire post: Spending on public schools has declined in the wake of the Great Recession
Report: 2016 Kids Share
Interactive Data Feature: America’s Gradebook
Report: Breaking the Curve: Promises and Pitfalls of Using NAEP Data to Assess the State Role in Student Achievement
Urban Wire post: Using pay for success to fund early childhood education
Collection: PFS + ECE Toolkit

Higher education
Report: Community Colleges: Multiple Missions, Diverse Student Bodies, and a Range of Policy Solutions
Report: The Federal-State Higher Education Partnership: How States Manage Their Roles
Report: The Federal-State Higher Education Partnership: Rethinking the Relationship
Report: The Federal-State Higher Education Partnership: Lessons from Other Federal-State Partnerships
Brief: Examining the Federal-State Partnership in Higher Education
Urban Wire post: State policymakers are playing politics instead of increasing educational opportunities
Collection: Understanding College Affordability

Safety-Net Programs 

Interactive Data: Urban Institute’s Transfer Income Model, version 3 (TRIM3)
Report: Changes in Joint Medicaid/CHIP and SNAP Participation Rates, 2011 to 2013: Findings from the Work Support Strategies Evaluation
Project: Work Support Strategies
Report: The Overlap in SNAP and Medicaid/CHIP Eligibility, 2013
Interactive Data Feature: Welfare Rules Database
Report: Welfare Rules Databook: State TANF Policies as of July 2015
Report: Why Does Cash Welfare Depend on Where You Live?
Urban Wire post: Why cash assistance is essential to moving Americans out of poverty
Report: Unequal Playing Field?

Paid leave, CCDF, and DI
Brief: Paid Family Leave in the United States
Urban Wire post: Would six weeks of paid parental leave be a good step forward?
Interactive Data: Child Care and Development Fund (CCDF) Policies Database
Report: The CCDF Policies Database Book of Tables
Brief: Geographic Patterns in Disability Insurance Receipt
Urban Wire post: Why do more New Englanders receive Disability Insurance benefits for mental disorders?
Urban Wire post: Efforts to reform the Disability Insurance program should start now

Public Employee Pensions 

Reform options
Interactive Data Feature: Public Pension Simulator
Report: Evaluating Pension Reform Options with the Public Pension Simulator

Rising costs
Report: Understanding the Growth in Government Contributions to New York State’s Public Pension Plans

Criminal Justice and Corrections 

Reform and reinvestment
Report: Reforming Sentencing and Corrections Policy
Urban Wire post: States spearhead ambitious criminal justice reform policies
Interactive Data Feature: Justice Reinvestment Initiative State Data Tracker
Urban Wire post: Federal leadership joins states in seeking needed updates to juvenile justice
Brief: A Path Forward

Criminal justice and the economy
Collection: Economic Impacts of Gun Violence
Brief: Using Jail to Enroll Low-Income Men in Medicaid
Brief: State Variation in the Hospital Costs of Gun Violence, 2010 and 2014
Urban Wire post: Police body camera policies: What’s in and what’s out
Urban Wire post: What could happen if the Violence Against Women Act is defunded?

Demographics and Housing 

Demographic changes
Interactive Data Feature: Mapping America’s Future
Report: The Future of Rural Housing
Urban Wire post: People and homes are aging quickly in our rural communities
Report: The Cost of Segregation
Urban Wire post: Less segregated communities aren’t only more inclusive. They’re more prosperous

Housing policy
Report: Taking Stock of the Community Development Block Grant
Urban Wire post: We need to know more about block grant programs to improve them
Urban Wire post: Four ideas for strengthening the finances of community development financial institutions
Report: Revitalizing Neighborhoods
Urban Wire post: Moving to Work expansion provides an opportunity to test new models of rental assistance
Collection: The State of Low- and Middle-Income Housing
Collection: The Cost of Eviction and Unpaid Bills of Financially Insecure Families for City Budgets
Interactive Data Feature: State Economic Monitor: Housing
Report: Housing Finance at a Glance: A Monthly Chartbook
Interactive Data Feature: A new view of the housing boom and bust
Report: How Much House Do Americans Really Own? Measuring America’s Accessible Housing Wealth by Geography and Age
Report: The Lasting Impact of Foreclosures and Negative Public Records
Urban Wire post: Proposed cuts to public housing threaten a repeat of the 1980s’ housing crisis

Immigration 

State finance
Report: State and Local Fiscal Effects of Immigration
Urban Wire post: What do immigrants cost state and local governments?
TaxVox post: What immigration means for our economic and fiscal future

Labor force and demographic trends
Urban Wire: Labor force growth increasingly depends on immigrants and their children
Interactive Data Feature: Visualizing Trends for Children of Immigrants
Interactive Data Feature: State Immigration Policy Resource
Report: State Immigration Enforcement Polices: How They Impact Low-Income Households
Urban Wire post: Blocking funds to sanctuary cities could hurt all Americans

Economic Development 

Collection: State Economic Development Strategies Toolkit
Report: State Economic Development Strategies
Urban Wire post: Massachusetts gave GE a “mega-deal” to move, but did it matter?
Urban Wire post: Three questions policymakers should be asking about the Foxconn megadeal
Brief: What Do State Economic Agencies Do?
Report: The Synthetic Control Method as a Tool to Understand State Policy
Working paper: State Workforce and Economic Development Collaboration
Brief: Investments in the Marketplace: How States Help Businesses Succeed
Brief: How State Tax Commissions Approach Economic Development

State Budgets and Taxes 

State budgets
Interactive Data Feature: What everyone should know about their state’s budget
TaxVox post: A new tool to get under the hood of state and local budget choices
TaxVox post: Don’t laugh at Illinois, your state could be next
TaxVox post: The next recession: are the states ready?
TaxVox post: State revenue outlook has few bright spots
Interactive Data Feature: State and Local Finance Initiative Data Query System

State taxes
Report: Federal-State Income Tax Progressivity
Report: The Pros and Cons of Taxing Sweetened Beverages Based on Sugar Content
Brief: Tax Policy outside of the Emerald City
Report: The Growth Mirage: State Tax Cuts Do Not Automatically Lead to Economic Growth
TaxVox post: The Brownback Tax Cut Experiment Ends in Kansas
Podcast: TPC’s New Podcast, Taxology, Explores The Laffer Curve
Brief: State Tax Commissions 2006–16
Interactive Data Feature: State Economic Monitor: Employment, Earnings, and Taxes
TaxVox post: Why an unusual coalition defeated Washington state’s carbon tax initiative
TaxVox post: Missouri voters were sold a bill of (taxable) goods
Urban Wire post: Do you pay sales tax on your online holiday shopping?
TaxVox post: Colorado’s ballot battle over health care may be the first of many
TaxVox post: Measuring big variations in state revenue capacity
Urban Wire post: The federal government’s role in minimum wage policy may be to take a backseat
TaxVox post: A Trump Crack Down on Legal Marijuana Would Hurt State Budgets
TaxVox post: A Tale of Two Tax Triggers

Research Area: 

Cross-Center Initiative

Cross-Center Initiative: 
To reuse content from Urban Institute, visit copyright.com, search for the publications, choose from a list of licenses, and complete the transaction.