Housing Finance at a Glance: Monthly Chartbooks

The February 2019 edition of At A Glance, the Housing Finance Policy Center’s reference guide for mortgage and housing market data, includes updated figures describing mortgage affordability by MSA, effective guarantee fees charged on new acquisitions, mortgage insurance activities and a special quarterly feature on GSE loan composition, repurchase rates, defaults, and loss severity.

After years of growth, commercial banks’ agency MBS holdings are retreating

Commercial banks and thrifts significantly ramped up their ownership of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) after the financial crisis began in 2008. The chart below shows the  total volume of agency pass-throughs and collateralized mortgage obligations  (CMOs) owned by banks and thrifts since 2000. Pass-through volume is broken out separately for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the GSEs) and Ginnie Mae.

Banking institutions gradually increased their ownership of agency pass-throughs and CMOs from about $765 billion at year-end 2007 to a peak of nearly $1.8 trillion at the end of 2017. As a share of total agency MBS outstanding, they owned 17.5 percent at year-end 2007 compared to 29 percent at year-end 2017. Except for a few isolated quarterly declines (mostly during the bubble), bank holdings of agency MBS increased consistently from 2008 to 2017, driven mostly by growth in both Ginnie Mae and GSE pass-through MBS.

Bank and thrift agency MBS holdings

Banks increased their ownership of federally-backed agency MBS during the crisis in part because of low demand for loans from consumers and businesses, as well as reduced lender appetite for risk during the recession. However, as the economy improved, demand for loans slowly came back.

Federal Reserve data show that bank commercial and industrial loans outstanding jumped by nearly $200 billion from year-end 2017 to year-end 2018; overall bank credit grew by $560 billion over the same period.

Additionally, dramatic flattening of the yield curve over the last year has reduced the spread between short-term borrowing rates and yields on agency MBS. Since the end of 2017, the spread between the current coupon MBS and the 3-month LIBOR rate has shrunk from 135 basis points to about 75 basis points. As a result, agency MBS are less attractive as an investment today than they were previously. In sum, less attractive returns on agency MBS and increased loan demand is likely leading banks to reduce their agency MBS holdings.

However, a turning point came in early 2018. After 14 consecutive quarterly increases, bank and thrift holdings of agency MBS fell slightly in Q1 2018. This was followed by small but back-to-back decreases in Q2 and Q3 2018 to $1.75 trillion, down $36 billion from the year-end 2017 peak level. All the decline came from GSE MBS; bank ownership of Ginnie MBS is up marginally since year-end 2017.

While the $36 billion decline is small, it is noteworthy because it signals the likely end of a recession-era trend.

 

Past chartbooks:

January 2019
January 30th Chartbook call with guest Dave Stevens

December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018 
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018

December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017 
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017 
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017

December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016 
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016 

December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015

December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014

December 2013
November 2013
October 2013