Across the country, states and cities have seen public school enrollment decline. This trend stems from decreasing birth rates and increasing use of educational alternatives like voucher programs, homeschooling, and private schooling and often leads to fewer school staff, less school funding, and school closures. In response, enrollment has taken on new importance for state and school district leaders, including in school accountability systems.
For states and cities looking to rebuild public school enrollment, evidence shows starting early can make a big difference. Our research shows how the District of Columbia’s prekindergarten (pre-K) program for 3-year-olds has led to school reenrollment and persistence in public education. Similar findings have been documented in Boston and Tulsa, where students typically enroll at age 4 and receive support for early learning.
But how does public prekindergarten help rebuild public school enrollment? In this article, we discuss DC’s approach and what it means for enrollment stability in grades K-12.
When school enrollment declines, states and cities look to pre-K
When Oklahoma school districts faced shrinking enrollments and school budgets in the late 1990s, they began enrolling 4-year-olds and created a new grade before kindergarten to strengthen the educational pipeline. In Boston, Mayor Michelle Wu framed universal pre-K as part of a broader effort to make the city’s public schools “the first choice for families.” And in DC, former administrator Miriam Calderón described “the hope that universal preschool would be part of the strategy to support families staying within the system.”
Having seen that states and cities turn to pre-K to bolster public education systems when enrollment declined, we set out to answer two questions using DC data:
- Did these efforts work?
- And would they still work today?
DC offers public prekindergarten to children starting at age 3—earlier than most states nationwide. The program operates like other grades in the public school system, sharing the same school-year schedule, teacher degree requirements and compensation, availability of before- and aftercare, and use of the Uniform Per Student Funding Formula. Take-up is high: 82 percent of 3-year-olds enrolled in the 2023–24 school year. Families seeking prekindergarten apply through a centralized school lottery, which supplies a natural experiment helpful for measuring program impact.
We found that 3-year-olds who were enrolled in prekindergarten were 35 percentage points more likely to stay in DC’s public schools through kindergarten and 18 percentage points more likely to stay in the same school from prekindergarten at age 4 to kindergarten than similar students who were never enrolled. Students in communities of color and neighborhoods with low incomes saw the greatest enrollment benefits. Prekindergarten attendance continued to promote public school enrollment even during the pandemic, when many young students left the public education system. Though data are limited, positive public school enrollment effects appeared to persist through second grade.
Universal pre-K propelled DC down a different path than the rest of the country. Common Core of Data enrollment figures from the Education Data Portal show how DC has outperformed the US in K–12 public school take-up since 2010, when the first universal pre-K cohorts entered kindergarten. Consistent with our findings, DC’s public schools also weathered the pandemic better than the national average, experiencing enrollment stability from 2019 to 2020 rather than the 4 percentage point drop.
Sources: Authors’ analysis of US Census Bureau population data obtained through the Annie E. Casey Foundation KIDS COUNT Data Center and Common Core of Data, Education Data Portal (version 0.24.0), Urban Institute, accessed February 20, 2026, https://educationdata.urban.org/documentation/.
What are the benefits of stable enrollment in public schools?
Persistence in public schools benefits both school systems and students. Sustained enrollment helps districts and principals plan for staffing and programs because funding is tied to student counts, while declining enrollment can strain resources.
Stability in the early grades is also linked to stronger academic and social-emotional development, as students who remain in the same school system avoid disruptions to instruction, peer networks, and support services. Families who remain in the same public schools contribute to stable communities and strengthen the local tax base, creating a virtuous cycle.
To slow enrollment declines and reap the academic and community benefits of universal pre-K, school districts and states can consider:
- expanding enrollment to 3-year-olds as DC did—or launching pre-K for 4-year-olds, which showed similar benefits in Boston and Tulsa;
- offering prekindergarten in public schools; and
- investing in programs that operate on a school-year schedule and meet the needs of children and families.
Although pre-K alone may not reverse recent nationwide public enrollment declines, it is a tested strategy for school and school system stability. DC sees this stability (PDF) as “a family’s vote of confidence.” For states and cities looking to rebuild public school enrollment, prekindergarten expansion could help gain the confidence of families in their communities too.
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