The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted student learning and the delivery of public education. Across the United States, most public K–12 schools saw widespread enrollment declines during the 2020–21 school year, with many reporting continued declines in subsequent school years. But the District of Columbia (DC) stands out as one of the few jurisdictions that did not experience declines in public K–12 enrollment between fall 2019 and fall 2021. How did DC’s universal public prekindergarten approach help the city maintain consistent enrollment numbers?

Key Findings

Using My School DC administrative lottery data from 2015–16 through 2018–19, DC Office of the State Superintendent of Education early childhood universe data from 2020–21 through 2022–23, and 2010 Census data, the findings show the following:

• Compared with students who did not enroll in PK3 (prekindergarten for 3-year-olds), students who attended PK3 by chance before the pandemic were 9.8 percentage points more likely to remain enrolled during a pandemic school year.
• Attending PK3 increases later K–3 enrollment across each subsequent pandemic year. Compared with students who did not enroll in PK3, students who attended PK3 between 2015 and 2018 were 12 percentage points more likely to be enrolled in the 2020–21 school year, 16 percentage points more likely in 2021–22, and 26 percentage points more likely in 2022–23.
• When examining grade-level enrollment trends during the pandemic school years (2020–21 through 2022–23), the effects of attending PK3 before the pandemic were the strongest for kindergarten and first grade. Students who attended PK3 were 23 percentage points more likely to be enrolled in kindergarten, 26 percentage points more likely to be enrolled in first grade, and 16 percentage points more likely to be enrolled in second grade.
• Students from communities with low incomes who attended public PK3 programs were 25 percentage points more likely to stay enrolled in DC’s public schools. But this was not a uniform trend; students from communities of color who participated in public PK3 did not demonstrate the same increased likelihood of enrolling in the DC school system compared with their peers who do not come from communities of color.
• In analyzing enrollment data for DC’s dual language and Montessori programs, there is no association between students who attended either a Montessori or dual language PK3 program and later enrollment in the DC school system. Students who enroll in either of these specific PK3 programs are just as likely to persist in the system compared with students who applied to these programs but did not get a seat.

Implications

This analysis demonstrates how public prekindergarten helped shield DC from widespread pandemic-related enrollment declines. Enrolling in PK3 before the pandemic generally increased public school enrollment in pandemic years, with the strongest effects observed in kindergarten and first-grade enrollment and for PK3 applicants who reside in neighborhoods with low incomes. These findings affirm the potential of public prekindergarten for protecting student and family engagement and even under extreme conditions, PK3 creates a constituency for public education.

For policymakers, these findings underscore the importance of expanding access to PK3 programs, particularly in low-income communities, to support long-term public school engagement. Public prekindergarten—especially when starting as early as 3 years old—can promote student persistence by providing early exposure to a classroom setting and fostering foundational academic and nonacademic skills. Further, these results suggest that students who attend prekindergarten exhibit greater continuity in their educational trajectory. Overall, these insights highlight the vital role public prekindergarten plays in enhancing enrollment rates and in sustaining student engagement throughout their educational journey.

Additional Resources

• Where the Kids Went: Nonpublic Schooling and Demographic Change during the Pandemic Exodus from Public Schools
• Impacts of a Prekindergarten Program on Children’s Mathematics, Language, Literacy, Executive Function, and Emotional Skills
• The Lasting Effects of Early-Childhood Education on Promoting the Skills and Social Mobility of Disadvantaged African Americans and Their Children
• Findings on Boston Prekindergarten Through Early Elementary School
• The Effects of Public Pre-K for 3-Year-Olds on Early Elementary School Outcomes: Evidence from the DC Centralized Lottery
• Using Centralized Lotteries to Measure Preschool Impact: Insights from the DC Prekindergarten Study
• Public School Enrollment Is Down by More Than a Million. Why?
• Understanding COVID-19-Era Enrollment Drops among Early-Grade Public School Students
• Who Wins the Preschool Lottery? Applicants and Application Patterns in DC Public Prekindergarten