Following the creation of Opportunity Zones (OZ) in 2017, many designated areas received no investment, while others received a substantial amount. With the program reauthorized to continue with new OZ designations in 2026, state and territory governors and the mayor of Washington, DC, have an opportunity to use the OZ designation to more effectively direct private capital toward communities with a demonstrated need and ability to attract investment.
To inform policymakers’ selections of OZs, we identified likely eligible census tracts and modeled which of these tracts are more or less likely to attract OZ investment. We further classified these tracts by degree of economic need, creating three categories: “Less likely to attract OZ investment,” “More likely to attract OZ investment, with larger impact,” and “Likely to attract capital even without OZ designation.”
Using the tool below, explore which census tracts in each state could see the greatest economic benefits if they are designated as Opportunity Zones in 2026.
ABOUT THE DATA
This tool was originally published on December 8, 2025. We updated the census tract likely eligibility and classifications using the US Census Bureau's American Community Survey 2020-24 five-year estimates on March 9, 2026.
Public data on Opportunity Zones do not exist at the national level, but Ohio is one of a few states that collect project-level data (a requirement of its state OZ tax credit). We used the investment flows data Ohio collected for its state OZ program to build a model of eligible tracts across the US.
To construct our selection tool classifications, we used the following indicators to determine likelihood of OZ investment: 2018–23 aggregate capital flows per household (weighted doubly); 2022 total jobs; percent change in median household income from 2012–16 to 2019–23; percent change in median gross rent from 2012–16 to 2019–23; percent change in population from 2012–16 to 2019–23; and percent change in multifamily capital flows per multifamily units from 2012–16 to 2019–23.
We considered a tract to be already likely to attract capital without OZs if it was in the 90th percentile of all US census tracts (not only eligible tracts) in any of the following indicators: 2012–16 aggregate capital flows per household; 2019–23 median household income; 2019–23 median home value; or 2019–23 median gross rent. Finally, we added tracts to this category with more than 15 percent of the population aged 18–24 to account for college students, who otherwise distort the OZ eligibility criteria of poverty rate and median household income.
The 2025 version of the Opportunity Zones policy differs slightly from the 2017 version, which could shift investment patterns in ways our model cannot predict. Most notably, the new policy could create a deeper tax benefit for rural areas. As such, we include a “likely rural” indicator based on the legislative text. Further, we classify each tract based on its current land use and recent conditions. Should those factors change significantly (e.g., via zoning modifications), a tract may become more or less attractive for investment than expected based on current conditions.
The underlying data are available for download here.
PROJECT CREDITS
This data tool was developed with support from Arnold Ventures. We are grateful to them and to all our funders, who make it possible for Urban to advance its mission. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to Arnold Ventures or to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders. Funders do not determine research findings or the insights and recommendations of our experts.
RESEARCH Brett Theodos, Brady Meixell, Ilina Mitra, and Tomi Rajninger
DATA VISUALIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT Rachel Marconi and Lydia Nguyen
EDITING Wesley Jenkins and Lauren Lastowka
