The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Illinois

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Illinois, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Illinois, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 4,193,520 4,590,873 4,836,870 4,906,048 4,853,274 4,628,244
White 3,347,094 3,412,524 3,422,830 3,276,002 3,049,915 2,704,171
Black 541,467 617,743 660,180 681,137 674,151 633,797
Hispanic 218,220 368,976 507,180 627,554 733,768 819,667
Other 86,739 191,630 246,680 321,355 395,439 470,609
  Household Growth: Illinois Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 1.4% −1.1% −4.6% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −4.3% −6.9% −11.3% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 3.2% −1.0% −6.0% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 23.7% 16.9% 11.7% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 30.3% 23.1% 19.0% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Illinois, by Age


 

Number of Households in Illinois, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 2,513,313 444,477 204,969 79,980 833,781 96,990 13,251 6,759
2000 2,585,584 509,271 343,755 173,455 826,940 108,472 25,221 18,175
2010 2,571,770 534,140 466,340 217,000 851,060 126,040 40,840 29,680
2020 2,267,413 512,334 549,002 270,735 1,008,589 168,803 78,551 50,620
2030 1,853,413 459,449 601,825 324,176 1,196,502 214,702 131,943 71,264
2040 1,574,416 411,632 622,612 378,182 1,129,754 222,166 197,055 92,427
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Illinois, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Illinois Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 64.3% 67.3% 67.5% 66.6% 66.1% 65.4%
White 70.5% 74.7% 75.4% 75.3% 75.0% 74.1%
Black 38.0% 42.3% 40.9% 38.2% 38.1% 38.5%
Hispanic 39.4% 48.6% 52.6% 55.8% 58.6% 60.8%
Other 51.4% 52.0% 59.2% 58.4% 59.0% 59.5%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Illinois and Nationwide

Illinois Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 61.6% 64.6% 64.5% 62.0% 61.1% 60.5%
65 and older 73.3% 77.1% 78.3% 79.0% 76.3% 74.3%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Illinois and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.