Forecasting State and National Trends in Household Formation and Homeownership

Homeownership is a critical wealth-building tool, but not everyone has the same opportunities to become a homeowner. The gap in homeownership rates between white households and households of color persists, and the Black-white homeownership gap is wider today than it was in the 1960s.

We investigated the historical trajectory of household formation and homeownership in the US and in all 50 states and Washington, DC. We also forecasted changes in household formation and homeownership over the next two decades if current policies stay the same.

Click on the map to see detailed trends and forecasts for household formation and homeownership rates by age and race or ethnicity in each state and to see how these state-level projections compare with national forecasts. See the full report for in-depth national findings and for recommendations on how policies can create a more sustainable and equitable housing landscape.

 

National findings

  • Household formation will be weak over the next two decades, with almost all net growth coming from households of color and senior households.
  • The homeownership rate will continue to fall for every age group, and the overall US homeownership rate will fall from 65 percent in 2020 to 62 percent in 2040.
  • Net growth in the number of homeowners from 2020 to 2040 will be entirely among people of color, especially Hispanic homeowners.
  • The decline in the homeownership rate will be particularly pronounced for older Black households, and the number of older Black renters will double between 2020 and 2040.
  • Renter growth will be more than twice the pace of homeowner growth from 2020 to 2040.

Report and methodology

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