The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is America’s first line of defense against hunger. Each year, around 42 million people turn to SNAP to help meet their food needs. However, the Trump administration has recently suggested rolling back SNAP benefits nationwide, and recent congressional policy proposals would require significant cuts to the program. While many of these proposals would narrow eligibility and participation, reaching the proposed $230 billion funding reduction would require further cuts, including eliminating the 2021 update to the Thrifty Food Plan.
Urban analysis shows that if the Thrifty Food Plan update is rolled back, SNAP benefits will fail to cover the cost of a modestly priced meal in every county in the US.
As a result, families who receive SNAP benefits would have to cut back on the amount of food they eat or turn to cheaper, less healthy options. These rollbacks would be particularly hard on the nearly 4 in 10 SNAP recipients who qualify for the maximum benefit because of very limited resources. In the wake of steep cuts, food insecurity and financial hardship will increase and health outcomes will worsen.
Below, select a state to see how eliminating the 2021 update to the Thrifty Food Plan, the model used to determine SNAP benefits, would create deficits between the maximum benefit and the cost of a modestly priced meal in every state and county.
Average Gap between Maximum SNAP Benefit and Average Cost of a Modestly Priced Meal
What’s at stake?
The Thrifty Food Plan, which is used to determine SNAP benefits, hadn’t been updated since 2006. In 2018, however, Congress approved a bipartisan provision to reevaluate the plan by 2022 and every five years thereafter. The resulting reevaluation, issued in 2021, ensured that SNAP benefit amounts reflected current dietary guidelines, costs of buying and preparing food, and household consumption patterns.
Recent policy proposals, however, would require significant cuts to SNAP and potentially roll back the updated Thrifty Food Plan. Any such cuts would make it more difficult for families to afford the food they need to live active, healthy lives.
Based on fiscal year 2024 benefit levels, the maximum per meal SNAP benefit would be reduced from $2.84 to $2.25 if the Thrifty Food Plan reevaluation were removed. This amount would not cover local food costs in any county in the US, and the average cost of a meal nationwide would be 51 percent higher than the maximum SNAP benefit. Over the course of a month, SNAP benefits would fall short of meal costs by $105 on average.
Some counties will experience deeper challenges. Outside of Alaska and Hawaii, SNAP benefits are not adjusted for geographic differences in cost of living, although costs differ substantially across localities. In the 20 counties with the largest disparities, the cost of a modestly priced meal was twice as much as the maximum SNAP benefit. Those counties include high-cost urban areas like New York County and rural areas like Custer County in Idaho.
Ultimately, reductions in SNAP benefits will be costly for local families and communities. In 2024, 1 of every 4 adults ages 18 to 64 reported facing food insecurity and needed help to meet their basic needs. In areas with high food prices, families have less purchasing power, which is associated with greater food insecurity. Prolonged food insecurity can put these families at risk of chronic disease, undermine young children’s development, and worsen physical and mental health.
SNAP is a proven antihunger and antipoverty program, with the Thrifty Food Plan reevaluation alone keeping 2.9 million people out of poverty in 2021.1 Cutting funding to SNAP has clear consequences: more hunger and more poverty nationwide.
About the Data
How do we estimate the SNAP benefit per meal?
The maximum SNAP benefit is the same for all counties in the 48 contiguous states and Washington, DC, and is adjusted for Alaska and Hawaii. Because we are interested in how well the maximum benefit can help people afford the cost of a modestly priced meal in their communities, we take an average of the maximum benefit each household size can receive and adjust it for each household size’s share of SNAP enrollees in 2022. We then divide the monthly benefit by the typical number of meals we assume people consume each month (3 meals a day for 31 days, or 93 total meals each month). We use the maximum SNAP benefit amounts as outlined in the 2024 cost-of-living adjustment implemented in October 2023.
How do we estimate the per meal maximum SNAP benefit after the removal of the 2021 Thrifty Food Plan reevaluation?
To estimate the maximum SNAP benefit if the Thrifty Food Plan reevaluation were removed, we artificially reduce the maximum SNAP benefit (calculated after application of the 2024 cost-of-living adjustment, which applies to benefits beginning October 2023) by 21.03 percent. This is the reduction that would be applicable to the reference family of four from the US Department of Agriculture—although the Thrifty Food Plan evaluations differ by household composition, size, age, and sex.
After making these adjustments, the per meal maximum benefit was $2.23 for the 48 contiguous states, $2.87 in Alaska, and $4.04 in Hawaii; the national average weighted by county-level population sizes was $2.25.
How do we calculate the average cost of a meal?
We use weekly reported food expenditures from the 2022 Current Population Survey and divide by meals eaten per week. We restrict the responses to those from households with incomes at or below 130 percent of the federal poverty level, which roughly equals the SNAP eligibility threshold for gross income before deductions. We also restrict responses to people who are food secure, as food-insecure families are likely underspending on food, even for a Thrifty Food Plan meal, because of limited resources. When calculating a national average meal cost across counties, we weight county meal costs by the estimated number of SNAP participants in each county. On average, the national cost of a meal for households meeting our criteria was $3.26 in 2022. We then used the Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator to trend this upward to a meal cost in 2023, which was $3.37.
How do we adjust the average meal cost for food prices by county?
We adjust the national cost per meal ($3.37) for the relative prices paid for the Thrifty Food Plan market basket in each county in the US. Our source for a county-level food price index is Feeding America’s annual Map the Meal Gap study, which is based on food price data contributed by NielsenIQ. These data are weighted to the Thrifty Food Plan market basket based on pounds purchased by men ages 19 to 50; while other Thrifty Food Plans for different ages and/or sexes would produce different total market basket costs, relative pricing between counties (our goal for this analysis) is not affected. We then translate the total market basket (including any applicable state and county sales taxes on groceries) into an adjustment factor that can be applied to any dollar amount. This adjustment differs by county, revealing differences in food costs at the county level.
Project Credits
This data tool was funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. We are grateful to them and to all our funders, who make it possible for Urban to advance its mission. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation or to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders. Funders do not determine research findings or the insights and recommendations of our experts. More information on our funding principles is available here. Read our terms of service here.
We are grateful for the data contributions from Feeding America’s Map the Meal Gap study (supported by Conagra Brands Foundation), which uses food price data contributed by NielsenIQ to estimate county-level meal costs. We appreciate the contributions of Craig Gundersen and Adam Dewey on other editions of this data tool.
RESEARCH Poonam Gupta, Elaine Waxman, and Kassandra Martinchek
DATA VISUALIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT Aleszu Bajak and Mitchell Thorson
EDITING Wesley Jenkins and Zach VeShancey
1 Laura Wheaton, "Updated SNAP Benefits Decreased Poverty in Every State: The Effect of the 2021 Thrifty Food Plan Reevaluation" (Washington, DC: Urban Institute, forthcoming).
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