In this research, we examine the state-level antipoverty effect of the reevaluation of the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP), which increased the maximum Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits by 21 percent starting in the fourth quarter of 2021. We conduct this analysis in the absence of other temporary enhancements to the SNAP program, specifically emergency allotments, as well as the temporary expansion to the child tax credit.

Why This Matters

Without emergency allotments and advance child tax credit payments, the higher SNAP benefits from the reevaluated TFP would have kept 2.9 million people out of poverty, for an overall reduction of 4.6 percent. And these higher benefits would have kept 1.3 million children out of poverty, with an overall reduction of 7.6 percent.

As Congress and the current administration consider rolling back the update to the TFP, it is important to understand how SNAP benefits, without the influence of other pandemic-era aid, reduce poverty at the state level.

What We Found

• Higher SNAP benefits from the reevaluated TFP reduced the number of people living in poverty by 13.5 percent in the District of Columbia and 7 to 8 percent across Alabama, Louisiana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio,, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. Poverty fell in all states, with the smallest estimated reduction (2.1 percent) in Vermont.
• The antipoverty effects were particularly pronounced for children, with the District of Columbia seeing a 34.8 percent reduction in the number of children in poverty and 13 states experiencing reductions of 10 to 14 percent.

How We Did It

We estimated the effects of changes in SNAP benefits and quarterly poverty using the Urban Institute’s Analysis of Transfers, Taxes, and Income Security (ATTIS) microsimulation model. We focused on the fourth quarter of 2021 because the higher benefits from the reevaluated TFP took effect in October 2021. We assessed poverty with the Supplemental Poverty Measure, which incorporates the value of SNAP and other noncash benefits.