Last week, Hurricane Helene brought widespread destruction along a 600-mile stretch of the southeast, from southern Florida to the lower Appalachians. It will be weeks or months before we know the full extent of Helene’s damage, but it’s clear now that western North Carolina—a mountainous region once described as a climate haven—has suffered terrible devastation. It received three days of historic rainfall that led to the “some of the highest river levels and the most severe flooding ever observed across the region.” The French Broad River in Asheville measured a peak height of 24.67 feet, well above the historic record and 6.5 feet above the level considered major flooding.
Tens of thousands of residents have been displaced and are struggling to access electricity, food, and water. In the aftermath of Helene, housing will quickly become one of the region’s most important challenges as its people and communities begin to navigate short- and long-term recovery.
To inform policymakers and other organizations leading efforts to meet the housing needs of those affected now and in the coming months and years, we examined housing and demographic data for the 25 counties in western North Carolina included in the initial Major Disaster Declaration and identified priorities for recovery based on our knowledge and experience of past disasters.
Many will struggle to access recovery resources
Our analysis shows the affected area includes substantial numbers of socially vulnerable people and households, a population more likely to be affected by an event like Helene and who may require unique resources or assistance to recover. Social vulnerability is associated with inequitable recovery generally and with inequitable housing recovery specifically. People with disabilities in rural areas, for instance, often live in lower-quality housing and have housing needs that are inadequately addressed by federal recovery programs.
Recovery professionals at all levels should consider whether their programs are inclusive of socially vulnerable populations, such as the 17 percent of households that include a person with a disability and the 4 percent that include foreign-born people. In some areas like Buncombe, Henderson, and Catawba Counties, the foreign-born population increases to about 7 percent. In those counties, 4 to 5 percent of the population say they speak English “less than very well” and may struggle to understand the complex array of housing assistance programs available to them. They’re also at risk of being excluded from recovery events like public meetings that are often conducted in English. Long-term recovery groups also can help to build relationships with and advocate for these populations.
Lack of household financial resources will drive housing inequities
Though the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the US Department of Housing and Urban Development, and other federal agencies provide significant resources for households who’ve suffered a disaster, housing recovery is driven primarily by individuals’ financial resources, including insurance policies. In western North Carolina, fewer than 2.5 percent of households participate in the National Flood Insurance Program (the primary provider of flood insurance nationwide) and may lack coverage for an event like Helene.
In part, the low uptake of flood insurance may arise from shortcomings with FEMA’s flood maps, which are based on historical flooding and are updated infrequently (all of western North Carolina’s FEMA flood maps were updated five or more years ago). Though homeowners with federally insured or regulated mortgages are required to have flood insurance if they live in high-risk zones, North Carolina doesn’t impose any additional flood insurance requirements.
The region also has a substantial share of households living below the federal poverty line, ranging from 9 percent in Lincoln County to 25 percent in Watauga County. Nearly every affected county includes census tracts where the poverty rate is above 20 percent. About a quarter (23 percent) of the region’s population is 65 years old and older and may be living on a fixed income or have limited savings. For many of these people and their families, housing recovery will be a long and difficult process because they will need to rely on public programs or charitable organizations with limited resources, slower timelines, and often more strings attached than private savings or insurance.
To avoid permanently displacing these people from their communities, public and humanitarian assistance must arrive quickly and reach those who need it most. Past disasters teach us that housing challenges, especially for people with low incomes, grow and change over time and that assistance programs may fail to see the whole picture. In the long-term, community organizations like community foundations and long-term recovery groups can serve as a vital link between disaster-affected households and government programs and can advocate on behalf of survivors long after the public’s attention has waned.
Housing supply and cost will likely threaten an equitable recovery
The sudden loss of housing after disasters like Hurricane Helene tends to increase the cost of the remaining supply, and for many years. Sudden price increases will likely hit households with low and fixed incomes the hardest, especially if they’re renting.
Before Helene, western North Carolina already faced a very tight housing market, with residential vacancy rates averaging just 1 percent and 23 percent of the region’s households reporting severe housing cost burdens, meaning they spend more than 50 percent of their income on housing costs. Additionally, about 15 percent of the region’s housing stock is manufactured, which is often at high-risk from flood disasters and faces unique barriers to recovery, potentially exacerbating the region’s housing challenges.
State and local officials will need to create temporary and transitional housing solutions that allow people to remain in place while the housing stock recovers. Communities could adapt local regulations to allow for temporary modular and manufactured housing units to be placed, for instance, or lease vacation rentals and hotel rooms as a medium-term housing strategy.
Housing will require regional solutions
Although many housing recovery decisions are made locally, western North Carolina has 92 local governments and 25 county governments, all with the authority to make plans and regulate development. Most will struggle to manage a complex housing recovery, in part because of their relatively small sizes and limited experience with major disasters.
To aid in the disaster relief efforts, state and federal officials—who are no stranger to disasters and who have more capacity—can begin to build local governments’ capacities to analyze and address these coming housing challenges. They also have an opportunity to empower organizations that facilitate collaboration between local jurisdictions and housing organizations, such as councils of government, to help develop regional recovery solutions.
The housing recovery of western North Carolina will take years and encompass both transitional needs—how people find stable places to live now—and longer-term considerations about housing repairs, construction, and affordability. Local and state policymakers must work together with survivors and organizations to ensure this recovery prioritizes equity and future resilience.
Let’s build a future where everyone, everywhere has the opportunity and power to thrive
With your support, the Urban Institute can continue working in communities to equip leaders with the evidence and data they need to build long-lasting solutions. Make your gift today.