As the Trump administration reduces federal employment, anxiety about the government’s ability to provide existing services is surging. Among the top concerns for many Americans is a possible disruption to delivery of Social Security benefits.
Social Security accounts for the lion’s share of income for most beneficiaries, many of whom have little savings. A brief interruption in benefit payments could leave millions unable to cover their rent, mortgage payments, groceries, health care, and other bills.
Our new analysis shows about 7 million Social Security beneficiaries lack enough savings to replace the income they would lose if their benefit checks were delayed by one month. Of these, about 6 million people would be unable to cover their basic monthly living expenses without taking on new debt.
Staffing cuts put crucial Social Security benefits at risk
More than 68 million people received Social Security benefits in January 2025. These payments provide critical financial support to retired and disabled adults, their families, and children and spouses of beneficiaries who have died. Benefit checks account for about half of beneficiaries’ overall income and about 75 percent of income received by the poorest beneficiaries. In total, Social Security benefits lift nearly 17 million older adults out of poverty.
Ongoing staffing cuts at the Social Security Administration (SSA), which runs the program, could disrupt benefit payments. In late February, the SSA announced that it plans to eliminate 7,000 jobs, roughly 12 percent of its workforce, even though staffing is already near a 50-year low.
Other changes are also being considered, but it’s unclear if, how, and where they will be implemented. The Department of Government Efficiency has reportedly identified dozens of SSA field offices for closure, and the SSA contemplated requiring people to go online or visit field offices in person to file for benefits, which would limit access to benefits for many older and disabled people. However, the SSA now says it has no plans to shutter any offices and that it will continue to allow people to conduct business with the agency over the phone.
Nonetheless, recent media reports have documented worsening customer service lapses at the SSA, including long lines at field offices, frequent website outages, and jammed phone lines. Given the ongoing turmoil, interruptions to Social Security benefit payments, once unthinkable, are now a distinct possibility.
Even a brief interruption in benefits would upend finances for many beneficiaries
We used the Urban Institute’s Dynamic Simulation of Income Model to assess how disruptions to benefit checks would affect projected 2025 annual Social Security benefits, other income sources, household savings, and spending needs for Social Security beneficiaries. Our estimate of spending needs came from the Elder Index, which measures usual monthly living expenses for older adults in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Although many adults ages 65 and older own a home free and clear, about half pay rent or make mortgage payments, and housing costs are older adults’ largest single expense.
We find 11 percent of current Social Security beneficiaries, or 7.4 million people, do not have enough savings to replace their benefits if their Social Security checks were delayed for one month. The share with inadequate savings to replace their Social Security increases to 13 percent (8.3 million people) if checks were delayed for two months and to 14 percent (9.2 million people) if checks were delayed for three months.
People receiving Disability Insurance (DI) benefits from Social Security are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in benefits because they generally accumulate less savings than retirees, as their health problems prevent them from working a full career. We find that 19 percent of DI beneficiaries could not replace lost benefits after one month of delay, 21 percent after two months, and 23 percent after three months.
Although some beneficiaries could collect other income or safety net benefits to tide them over, most would be unable to make ends meet. If Social Security payments were interrupted for just one month, 9 percent of beneficiaries, or 5.8 million people, would be unable to replace their lost Social Security income and would have to take on debt to make ends meet. If checks were delayed for two months, 6.5 million people would have to take on debt, and 7 million people would if checks were delayed for three months.
DI beneficiaries would be hit harder than retirees. With a disruption in payments, the share of DI beneficiaries unable to cover their monthly expenses would reach 16 percent if benefit checks were delayed one month, 18 percent if checks were delayed two months, and 20 percent if checks were delayed three months.
Guaranteeing continued Social Security payments is essential
Social Security’s administrative budget has been stretched thin for years. As annual appropriations growth has fallen short of inflation, staffing shortfalls have swelled, and technology information systems have become obsolete. As a result, the backlog of DI claims has increased, and wait times for basic services have lengthened.
So far, these challenges have not affected the distribution of benefit checks. With many Social Security beneficiaries living benefit check to benefit check, even a brief interruption would pose an economic hardship for millions of retirees, disabled workers, and their families. Disabled workers, whose finances are often especially precarious, face heightened risks.
To protect retirees, disabled workers, and their families, Congress and the Trump administration must ensure the SSA has the resources it needs to process benefit checks, make quick disability determinations, enroll new beneficiaries, and provide appropriate customer service.
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