By the end of the century, experts predict that millions of people living in the US will be displaced by climate change. As the direct effects of climate change—including extreme heat, poor air quality, wildfires, and flooding—grow more frequent and intense, communities will need to prepare for the realities of climate-driven migration and climate disasters.

Exploratory scenario planning (XSP) is a flexible tool that can help local leaders grapple with these uncertainties. Unlike more traditional scenario planning, XSP forces participants to break out of established thinking patterns. It’s a collaborative process participants can use to explore their priorities and prepare for uncertainty in the context of multiple possible futures—desirable or otherwise. Through brainstorming and collective problem-solving, stakeholders, organizations, and departments can move beyond competing priorities toward common interests. This work not only builds understanding and relationships across different sectors and offices but also facilitates collaboration and coordination.

In March, the Urban Institute and the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, in partnership with Kent State’s Cleveland Urban Design Collaborative, the University at Buffalo's School of Architecture and Planning, and the Cuyahoga County Office of Sustainability, convened a small group of local leaders for an XSP workshop. Together, the group explored the possible impacts of climate change and climate migration and how to bolster sustainable development in Cuyahoga County, Ohio.

Drawing on insights from this workshop, here are six steps local governments can use to foster cross-sectoral and cross-jurisdictional collaboration and prepare for the effects of climate change in their communities.

1. Identify stakeholders and set goals.

Consider what you want to accomplish through the XSP process. At the Cuyahoga County climate migration workshop, our goal was to familiarize local leaders with XSP and how climate migration could support labor force development, cultural institutions, and green infrastructure.

Now, think about the key stakeholders who should be involved and how to best engage them. In addition to other departments in your local government, are there other jurisdictions, regional partners, or tribal councils that should be involved? Consider collaborating across sectors: Which public, private, and nonprofit actors could weigh in? We invited a small group of government, nonprofit, and private-sector representatives to our workshops, including staff from across multiple cities and county departments, economic and community development nonprofits, and private sewer and energy providers.

You will also want to consider whether to engage residents in your XSP workshop. Including residents in the process—especially those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change—can add important nuance to your understanding of existing inequities and how climate change could widen those disparities. If your team is new to XSP, however, a larger group may be harder to coordinate, and residents may feel frustrated if you are unprepared to act.

While our work was narrowly focused on introducing cross-sector, local leaders to XSP and building momentum for collaboration, XSP is a powerful tool that can also be applied to wider-scale climate action planning, such as coordinated disaster response and preparedness.

2. Determine central themes.

To clarify what you’d like the XSP process to achieve, brainstorm and select themes most relevant to your community. Although there may be many related themes, selecting a few will simplify later steps.

For example, Cleveland—the seat of Cuyahoga County—is a legacy city that’s faced population decline as a result of deindustrialization. Working with architects, our workshop focused on the built environment and regional population as themes. We considered how climate change and climate in-migration might affect the county’s population and development patterns. We asked: How could Cuyahoga County plan and prepare for sustainable development while advancing equity among current and future residents?

3. Pinpoint driving forces of change.

In relation to your selected themes, consider potential uncertainties. In the Cuyahoga County workshop, we explored the environmental, economic, and social factors that currently contribute to the declining population and that might bring people to the region in the future. With a changing population and uncertain environmental conditions, we considered how the built environment could adapt.

What factors beyond your community’s control could change? What are things your community could work toward that should change? Change may not be linear, but visualizing change on an axis can also simplify the process.

4. Develop narratives for alternative scenarios.

Now, imagine how the future might look. Consider how the driving forces of change and themes you identified might interact. For each scenario, flesh out a narrative or story that describes how the driving forces could interact and affect community outcomes.

In preparation for the workshop, our planning team considered how climate change could affect both the built and natural environment, as well as population decline or growth. For each scenario, we developed an in-depth narrative that explored how land-use practices would be affected. Next, we created a diagram to chart how new development might infill existing areas or expand to adjacent communities and counties, based on whether the region’s population continues to grow or decline.

5. Outline strategies in response to the scenarios.

Keeping uncertainty in mind, brainstorm strategies to achieve your established goals in each scenario. Try to consider both the potential benefits and challenges of each scenario. For any given situation, how could you proactively prepare? How could you respond?

Exploring strategies for each possible scenario helped Cuyahoga County workshop participants identify central priorities. By working across scenarios, participants ideated pathways to strengthen green infrastructure, advance inclusionary zoning, and coordinate cross-jurisdictional action.

6. Track trends and indicators to guide decisionmaking.

This final step is an ongoing process. Thinking about each scenario as one possibility of many, what indicators can help you track changes and adapt to a given scenario in real time? Who is responsible for monitoring trends? What contingency plans or strategies should be employed now?

During our workshop, participants identified several next steps, such as setting up a regular working group; pinpointing methods to track local climate, economic, and social indicators; and collaborating on “no regrets” policies.