The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Washington

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Washington, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Washington, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 1,867,245 2,271,254 2,619,910 2,994,525 3,438,312 3,849,476
White 1,683,264 1,910,358 2,082,260 2,216,249 2,378,439 2,488,969
Black 50,157 66,410 87,130 111,504 142,869 175,638
Hispanic 52,371 108,026 188,920 273,361 375,849 489,475
Other 81,453 186,460 261,600 393,411 541,155 695,394
  Household Growth: Washington Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 14.3% 14.8% 12.0% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 6.4% 7.3% 4.6% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 28.0% 28.1% 22.9% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 44.7% 37.5% 30.2% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 50.4% 37.6% 28.5% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Washington, by Age


 

Number of Households in Washington, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 1,323,606 43,992 49,206 72,648 359,658 6,165 3,165 8,805
2000 1,512,392 59,684 102,409 166,557 397,966 6,726 5,617 19,903
2010 1,603,830 76,760 177,600 229,360 478,430 10,370 11,320 32,240
2020 1,545,023 93,702 249,124 332,808 671,226 17,802 24,237 60,603
2030 1,540,606 113,934 325,975 448,826 837,833 28,935 49,875 92,329
2040 1,606,646 134,246 407,756 569,853 882,323 41,392 81,719 125,541
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Washington, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Washington Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 62.6% 64.6% 63.9% 63.6% 62.5% 60.5%
White 64.7% 67.9% 67.9% 68.4% 68.1% 66.6%
Black 35.2% 37.6% 35.7% 33.7% 33.5% 33.5%
Hispanic 39.1% 41.0% 42.8% 45.0% 45.8% 46.1%
Other 51.1% 53.5% 56.4% 57.8% 57.2% 55.9%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Washington and Nationwide

Washington Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 59.1% 61.6% 60.7% 58.3% 56.0% 54.3%
65 and older 76.6% 77.2% 76.2% 78.9% 78.4% 75.5%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Washington and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.