The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Texas

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Texas, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Texas, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 6,058,107 7,392,613 8,922,700 10,060,407 11,675,491 13,234,530
White 4,139,676 4,489,186 4,803,460 4,853,706 5,022,469 5,086,096
Black 670,734 830,284 1,068,080 1,301,633 1,619,947 1,945,554
Hispanic 1,134,964 1,782,434 2,614,090 3,269,093 4,145,921 5,044,411
Other 112,733 290,709 437,070 635,976 887,155 1,158,470
  Household Growth: Texas Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 12.8% 16.1% 13.4% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 1.0% 3.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 21.9% 24.5% 20.1% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 25.1% 26.8% 21.7% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 45.5% 39.5% 30.6% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Texas, by Age


 

Number of Households in Texas, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 3,262,557 559,346 999,054 106,194 877,119 111,388 135,910 6,539
2000 3,501,684 708,521 1,581,194 268,687 987,502 121,763 201,240 22,022
2010 3,658,460 919,570 2,310,510 393,800 1,145,000 148,510 303,580 43,270
2020 3,385,022 1,068,805 2,765,242 550,606 1,468,683 232,828 503,851 85,370
2030 3,209,854 1,250,548 3,333,860 745,692 1,812,614 369,399 812,061 141,463
2040 3,231,442 1,456,472 3,884,837 931,880 1,854,653 489,082 1,159,573 226,589
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Texas, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Texas Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 60.9% 63.8% 63.7% 62.2% 61.1% 60.0%
White 65.9% 70.8% 71.5% 71.0% 70.8% 70.0%
Black 45.3% 46.6% 44.8% 39.2% 38.1% 37.5%
Hispanic 53.2% 56.1% 57.8% 58.2% 58.3% 58.5%
Other 48.1% 52.6% 59.8% 62.2% 61.7% 60.6%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Texas and Nationwide

Texas Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 56.6% 60.0% 60.1% 56.8% 55.2% 54.4%
65 and older 79.6% 80.9% 79.7% 80.3% 77.2% 74.3%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Texas and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.