The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in South Dakota

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in South Dakota, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in South Dakota, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 259,218 289,865 322,260 354,617 395,574 435,749
White 245,096 267,157 289,560 308,429 328,948 344,165
Black 987 1,305 2,960 7,084 11,402 17,244
Hispanic 1,019 2,611 5,540 12,894 21,366 31,436
Other 12,116 18,792 24,200 26,209 33,857 42,904
  Household Growth: South Dakota Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 10.0% 11.5% 10.2% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 6.5% 6.7% 4.6% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 139.3% 60.9% 51.2% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 132.8% 65.7% 47.1% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 8.3% 29.2% 26.7% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in South Dakota, by Age


 

Number of Households in South Dakota, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 178,505 987 909 10,388 66,591 0 110 1,728
2000 199,567 1,232 2,478 16,705 67,590 73 133 2,087
2010 216,890 2,830 5,190 21,070 72,670 130 350 3,130
2020 216,353 6,562 12,257 21,444 92,076 NA 637 4,765
2030 207,904 10,752 19,992 27,341 121,045 NA 1,374 6,516
2040 213,884 15,332 28,345 35,907 130,281 1,913 3,091 6,997
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in South Dakota, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

South Dakota Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 66.0% 68.2% 68.1% 68.7% 67.5% 65.1%
White 67.9% 70.6% 71.4% 73.7% 73.8% 72.4%
Black NA NA NA NA NA NA
Hispanic 40.1% 43.1% 41.2% 30.9% 37.2% 41.6%
Other 35.2% 40.1% 40.5% 39.6% 39.4% 40.9%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in South Dakota and Nationwide

South Dakota Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 63.6% 66.3% 66.5% 64.2% 51.5% 36.5%
65 and older 72.8% 74.1% 73.4% 68.6% 79.9% 71.6%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in South Dakota and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.