The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Pennsylvania

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Pennsylvania, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Pennsylvania, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 4,485,859 4,775,666 5,018,620 5,162,300 5,259,481 5,226,419
White 4,014,696 4,133,021 4,176,520 4,123,886 4,005,354 3,746,097
Black 369,285 426,206 486,150 514,624 547,818 571,998
Hispanic 59,501 108,183 195,500 300,980 420,861 555,736
Other 42,377 108,256 160,450 222,811 285,448 352,588
  Household Growth: Pennsylvania Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 2.9% 1.9% −0.6% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −1.3% −2.9% −6.5% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 5.9% 6.5% 4.4% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 54.0% 39.8% 32.0% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 38.9% 28.1% 23.5% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Pennsylvania, by Age


 

Number of Households in Pennsylvania, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 2,906,689 287,175 54,780 39,718 1,108,007 82,110 4,721 2,659
2000 3,001,400 338,837 99,375 97,493 1,131,621 87,369 8,808 10,763
2010 3,033,070 395,430 178,420 143,340 1,143,450 90,720 17,080 17,110
2020 2,753,057 397,298 265,040 189,778 1,370,829 117,326 35,940 33,032
2030 2,376,815 394,135 353,281 235,749 1,628,539 153,682 67,580 49,699
2040 2,139,784 406,261 451,146 285,143 1,606,313 165,737 104,589 67,445
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Pennsylvania, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Pennsylvania Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 70.7% 71.3% 69.6% 69.2% 68.3% 66.2%
White 73.1% 74.8% 74.2% 75.4% 75.9% 75.2%
Black 50.9% 49.7% 46.1% 43.0% 42.7% 42.5%
Hispanic 41.8% 43.8% 42.4% 40.7% 39.9% 38.7%
Other 52.1% 49.9% 54.3% 53.3% 53.2% 52.0%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Pennsylvania and Nationwide

Pennsylvania Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 68.8% 69.2% 67.4% 65.3% 62.7% 59.9%
65 and older 75.8% 77.4% 75.9% 78.0% 78.2% 76.8%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Pennsylvania and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.