The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Oregon

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Oregon, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Oregon, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 1,099,870 1,334,413 1,518,880 1,689,513 1,912,893 2,106,393
White 1,026,103 1,179,274 1,289,400 1,369,938 1,481,392 1,558,170
Black 14,857 18,376 23,640 29,223 37,809 47,641
Hispanic 26,981 62,674 109,840 158,884 220,090 283,484
Other 31,929 74,089 96,000 131,468 173,602 217,098
  Household Growth: Oregon Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 11.2% 13.2% 10.1% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 6.2% 8.1% 5.2% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 23.6% 29.4% 26.0% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 44.7% 38.5% 28.8% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 36.9% 32.0% 25.1% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Oregon, by Age


 

Number of Households in Oregon, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 777,377 12,600 24,893 28,833 248,726 2,257 2,088 3,096
2000 909,368 15,928 59,849 66,005 269,906 2,448 2,825 8,084
2010 965,140 20,550 103,560 83,910 324,260 3,090 6,280 12,090
2020 916,914 24,012 142,948 107,554 453,024 5,211 15,936 23,915
2030 935,113 29,865 189,164 140,094 546,279 7,944 30,927 33,508
2040 987,360 37,425 230,533 171,573 570,810 10,216 52,951 45,525
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Oregon, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Oregon Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 63.0% 64.3% 62.2% 63.5% 62.5% 60.9%
White 64.6% 66.9% 65.2% 66.9% 66.3% 65.0%
Black 37.9% 37.0% 33.0% 37.4% 39.3% 41.2%
Hispanic 37.3% 36.7% 40.1% 42.9% 44.4% 45.8%
Other 47.1% 51.7% 54.2% 58.7% 57.5% 56.1%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Oregon and Nationwide

Oregon Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 58.6% 60.6% 58.1% 57.5% 55.5% 54.4%
65 and older 77.6% 77.8% 76.1% 77.6% 77.0% 74.6%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Oregon and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.