The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in North Dakota

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in North Dakota, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in North Dakota, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 239,310 257,081 281,190 324,649 360,245 402,217
White 229,630 242,235 259,530 278,369 281,017 281,064
Black 1,130 1,132 2,500 14,225 30,862 52,649
Hispanic 1,240 2,035 3,680 11,402 21,437 34,088
Other 7,310 11,679 15,480 20,652 26,929 34,417
  Household Growth: North Dakota Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 15.5% 11.0% 11.7% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 7.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 469.0% 117.0% 70.6% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 209.8% 88.0% 59.0% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 33.4% 30.4% 27.8% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in North Dakota, by Age


 

Number of Households in North Dakota, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 171,230 1,130 1,135 6,700 58,400 0 105 610
2000 181,713 1,041 1,919 10,471 60,522 91 116 1,208
2010 197,250 2,400 3,420 13,810 62,280 100 260 1,670
2020 206,622 14,225 10,753 18,130 71,748 NA 649 2,522
2030 191,095 29,642 20,186 22,583 89,922 NA 1,251 4,346
2040 190,948 50,667 31,557 29,445 90,115 NA 2,531 4,972
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in North Dakota, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

North Dakota Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.6% 66.8% 65.4% 62.5% 59.8% 56.4%
White 66.7% 68.2% 67.7% 68.2% 68.5% 67.6%
Black 14.6% 19.9% 16.8% 8.7% 15.7% 20.0%
Hispanic 30.2% 35.7% 34.5% 28.7% 32.0% 35.8%
Other 44.2% 47.2% 42.3% 40.9% 40.9% 41.4%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in North Dakota and Nationwide

North Dakota Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.7% 64.6% 63.3% 58.0% 53.5% 52.1%
65 and older 74.4% 73.5% 72.6% NA 79.3% 70.3%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in North Dakota and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.