The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in North Carolina

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in North Carolina, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in North Carolina, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 2,513,565 3,131,676 3,745,050 4,110,636 4,592,635 4,988,655
White 1,968,270 2,327,430 2,624,400 2,760,272 2,956,208 3,062,468
Black 487,041 622,366 774,420 868,748 973,189 1,058,828
Hispanic 19,146 89,398 201,450 277,274 382,573 503,108
Other 39,108 92,482 144,780 204,342 280,666 364,251
  Household Growth: North Carolina Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 9.8% 11.7% 8.6% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 5.2% 7.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 12.2% 12.0% 8.8% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 37.6% 38.0% 31.5% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 41.1% 37.4% 29.8% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in North Carolina, by Age


 

Number of Households in North Carolina, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 1,533,162 394,398 17,973 35,055 435,108 92,643 1,173 4,053
2000 1,807,141 518,720 86,499 83,574 520,289 103,646 2,899 8,908
2010 1,975,090 642,870 193,000 128,810 649,310 131,550 8,450 15,970
2020 1,889,698 667,080 256,285 173,104 870,574 201,668 20,989 31,238
2030 1,832,823 683,911 331,993 233,535 1,123,384 289,278 50,580 47,131
2040 1,816,316 717,297 405,878 292,208 1,246,152 341,531 97,230 72,043
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in North Carolina, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

North Carolina Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 68.0% 69.3% 66.7% 66.3% 65.2% 63.8%
White 73.0% 75.7% 74.2% 75.1% 74.2% 72.9%
Black 49.7% 52.7% 48.8% 45.6% 44.7% 43.6%
Hispanic 42.3% 31.3% 42.9% 48.2% 51.1% 53.0%
Other 59.8% 57.3% 59.0% 59.4% 59.9% 60.6%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in North Carolina and Nationwide

North Carolina Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 65.0% 66.2% 63.0% 60.5% 58.8% 57.0%
65 and older 79.4% 81.4% 80.0% 81.6% 78.3% 76.2%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in North Carolina and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.