PROJECTForecasting State and National Trends in Household Formation and Homeownership


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  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Wyoming
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Wisconsin
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in West Virginia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Washington
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Virginia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Vermont
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Utah
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Texas
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Tennessee
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in South Dakota
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in South Carolina
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Rhode Island
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Pennsylvania
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Oregon
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Oklahoma
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Ohio
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in North Dakota
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in North Carolina
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New York
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New Mexico
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New Jersey
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New Hampshire
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Nevada
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Nebraska
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Montana
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Missouri
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Mississippi
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Minnesota
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Michigan
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Massachusetts
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Maryland
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Maine
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Louisiana
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Kentucky
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Kansas
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Iowa
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Indiana
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Illinois
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Idaho
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Hawaii
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Georgia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Florida
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in District of Columbia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Delaware
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Connecticut
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Colorado
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in California
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Arkansas
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Arizona
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Alaska

  • Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

    Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in North Carolina, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

    Household Formation

    We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

    Number of Households and Household Growth

    Number of Households in North Carolina, by Race or Ethnicity
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Total 2,513,565 3,131,676 3,745,050 4,110,636 4,592,635 4,988,655
    White 1,968,270 2,327,430 2,624,400 2,760,272 2,956,208 3,062,468
    Black 487,041 622,366 774,420 868,748 973,189 1,058,828
    Hispanic 19,146 89,398 201,450 277,274 382,573 503,108
    Other 39,108 92,482 144,780 204,342 280,666 364,251
      Household Growth: North Carolina Household Growth: Nationwide
    2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
    Total 9.8% 11.7% 8.6% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
    White 5.2% 7.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
    Black 12.2% 12.0% 8.8% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
    Hispanic 37.6% 38.0% 31.5% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
    Other 41.1% 37.4% 29.8% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Number of Households in North Carolina, by Age


     

    Number of Households in North Carolina, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
     
      Younger than 65 65 and older
    White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
    1990 1,533,162 394,398 17,973 35,055 435,108 92,643 1,173 4,053
    2000 1,807,141 518,720 86,499 83,574 520,289 103,646 2,899 8,908
    2010 1,975,090 642,870 193,000 128,810 649,310 131,550 8,450 15,970
    2020 1,889,698 667,080 256,285 173,104 870,574 201,668 20,989 31,238
    2030 1,832,823 683,911 331,993 233,535 1,123,384 289,278 50,580 47,131
    2040 1,816,316 717,297 405,878 292,208 1,246,152 341,531 97,230 72,043
    Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
     
      Younger than 65 65 and older
    White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
    2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
    2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
    2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in North Carolina, and Nationwide

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Homeownership

    We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

    North Carolina Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Total 68.0% 69.3% 66.7% 66.3% 65.2% 63.8%
    White 73.0% 75.7% 74.2% 75.1% 74.2% 72.9%
    Black 49.7% 52.7% 48.8% 45.6% 44.7% 43.6%
    Hispanic 42.3% 31.3% 42.9% 48.2% 51.1% 53.0%
    Other 59.8% 57.3% 59.0% 59.4% 59.9% 60.6%
    National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
    White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
    Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
    Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
    Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in North Carolina and Nationwide

    North Carolina Homeownership Rates, by Age
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Younger than 65 65.0% 66.2% 63.0% 60.5% 58.8% 57.0%
    65 and older 79.4% 81.4% 80.0% 81.6% 78.3% 76.2%
    National Homeownership Rates, by Age
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
    65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

    Millions of Owners and Renters in North Carolina and Nationwide, by Age

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

    Research Areas Housing finance
    Policy Centers Housing Finance Policy Center