The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New York

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in New York, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in New York, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 6,619,708 7,057,009 7,317,320 7,466,842 7,392,015 7,100,719
White 4,898,922 4,775,535 4,728,510 4,534,541 4,276,818 3,871,588
Black 864,650 971,758 1,007,140 1,041,196 1,041,967 1,002,276
Hispanic 640,456 828,892 1,006,400 1,203,571 1,293,528 1,355,874
Other 215,680 480,824 575,270 687,534 779,702 870,981
  Household Growth: New York Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 2.0% −1.0% −3.9% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −4.1% −5.7% −9.5% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 3.4% 0.1% −3.8% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 19.6% 7.5% 4.8% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 19.5% 13.4% 11.7% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in New York, by Age


 

Number of Households in New York, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 3,596,834 712,771 570,490 195,882 1,302,088 151,879 69,966 19,798
2000 3,518,109 805,058 728,609 428,184 1,257,426 166,700 100,283 52,640
2010 3,475,550 812,560 860,770 499,950 1,252,960 194,580 145,630 75,320
2020 3,061,834 767,485 967,357 560,958 1,472,708 273,711 236,214 126,575
2030 2,580,311 689,903 949,896 603,662 1,696,507 352,065 343,632 176,041
2040 2,271,705 633,529 934,274 658,453 1,599,883 368,747 421,600 212,528
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in New York, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

New York Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 52.2% 53.0% 53.3% 54.2% 54.7% 54.5%
White 62.2% 65.0% 65.7% 67.0% 67.3% 66.8%
Black 25.7% 29.9% 30.7% 33.1% 34.3% 36.0%
Hispanic 16.5% 19.5% 23.2% 27.0% 29.7% 31.5%
Other 37.7% 38.6% 43.6% 49.6% 54.1% 57.1%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in New York and Nationwide

New York Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 50.9% 50.3% 50.2% 49.9% 49.5% 50.3%
65 and older 56.7% 62.2% 63.7% 65.2% 64.3% 61.8%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in New York and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.