PROJECTForecasting State and National Trends in Household Formation and Homeownership


Project Navigation
  • Project Home
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Wyoming
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Wisconsin
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in West Virginia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Washington
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Virginia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Vermont
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Utah
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Texas
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Tennessee
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in South Dakota
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in South Carolina
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Rhode Island
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Pennsylvania
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Oregon
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Oklahoma
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Ohio
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in North Dakota
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in North Carolina
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New York
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New Mexico
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New Jersey
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New Hampshire
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Nevada
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Nebraska
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Montana
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Missouri
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Mississippi
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Minnesota
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Michigan
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Massachusetts
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Maryland
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Maine
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Louisiana
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Kentucky
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Kansas
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Iowa
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Indiana
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Illinois
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Idaho
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Hawaii
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Georgia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Florida
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in District of Columbia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Delaware
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Connecticut
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Colorado
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in California
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Arkansas
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Arizona
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Alaska

  • Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

    Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in New Jersey, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

    Household Formation

    We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

    Number of Households and Household Growth

    Number of Households in New Jersey, by Race or Ethnicity
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Total 2,787,221 3,065,809 3,214,220 3,302,799 3,350,415 3,315,250
    White 2,183,038 2,187,034 2,103,180 1,971,587 1,830,380 1,619,391
    Black 320,911 371,390 406,840 427,224 442,165 443,688
    Hispanic 205,631 310,262 436,690 573,753 688,865 806,537
    Other 77,641 197,123 267,510 330,234 389,006 445,634
      Household Growth: New Jersey Household Growth: Nationwide
    2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
    Total 2.8% 1.4% −1.0% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
    White −6.3% −7.2% −11.5% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
    Black 5.0% 3.5% 0.3% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
    Hispanic 31.4% 20.1% 17.1% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
    Other 23.4% 17.8% 14.6% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Number of Households in New Jersey, by Age


     

    Number of Households in New Jersey, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
     
      Younger than 65 65 and older
    White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
    1990 1,601,902 266,930 188,846 74,153 581,136 53,981 16,785 3,488
    2000 1,592,291 308,748 281,054 183,431 594,743 62,642 29,208 13,692
    2010 1,509,800 333,060 388,590 240,100 593,380 73,780 48,100 27,410
    2020 1,289,907 329,453 488,489 275,862 681,681 97,771 85,264 54,372
    2030 1,030,571 305,473 537,439 309,671 799,809 136,692 151,426 79,334
    2040 880,815 288,369 592,860 339,466 738,576 155,320 213,677 106,167
    Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
     
      Younger than 65 65 and older
    White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
    2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
    2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
    2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in New Jersey, and Nationwide

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Homeownership

    We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

    New Jersey Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Total 65.0% 65.6% 65.4% 64.3% 63.1% 61.5%
    White 72.4% 75.7% 77.0% 77.3% 77.2% 77.0%
    Black 38.0% 40.5% 40.6% 42.8% 44.6% 46.7%
    Hispanic 30.7% 33.1% 36.3% 37.2% 38.5% 39.0%
    Other 58.8% 52.1% 59.7% 61.4% 61.5% 60.8%
    National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
    White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
    Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
    Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
    Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in New Jersey and Nationwide

    New Jersey Homeownership Rates, by Age
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Younger than 65 63.1% 63.0% 62.6% 60.0% 57.8% 56.4%
    65 and older 71.1% 74.3% 74.6% 75.4% 73.1% 70.3%
    National Homeownership Rates, by Age
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
    65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

    Millions of Owners and Renters in New Jersey and Nationwide, by Age

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

    Research Areas Housing finance
    Policy Centers Housing Finance Policy Center