The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New Jersey

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in New Jersey, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in New Jersey, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 2,787,221 3,065,809 3,214,220 3,302,799 3,350,415 3,315,250
White 2,183,038 2,187,034 2,103,180 1,971,587 1,830,380 1,619,391
Black 320,911 371,390 406,840 427,224 442,165 443,688
Hispanic 205,631 310,262 436,690 573,753 688,865 806,537
Other 77,641 197,123 267,510 330,234 389,006 445,634
  Household Growth: New Jersey Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 2.8% 1.4% −1.0% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −6.3% −7.2% −11.5% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 5.0% 3.5% 0.3% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 31.4% 20.1% 17.1% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 23.4% 17.8% 14.6% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in New Jersey, by Age


 

Number of Households in New Jersey, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 1,601,902 266,930 188,846 74,153 581,136 53,981 16,785 3,488
2000 1,592,291 308,748 281,054 183,431 594,743 62,642 29,208 13,692
2010 1,509,800 333,060 388,590 240,100 593,380 73,780 48,100 27,410
2020 1,289,907 329,453 488,489 275,862 681,681 97,771 85,264 54,372
2030 1,030,571 305,473 537,439 309,671 799,809 136,692 151,426 79,334
2040 880,815 288,369 592,860 339,466 738,576 155,320 213,677 106,167
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in New Jersey, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

New Jersey Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.0% 65.6% 65.4% 64.3% 63.1% 61.5%
White 72.4% 75.7% 77.0% 77.3% 77.2% 77.0%
Black 38.0% 40.5% 40.6% 42.8% 44.6% 46.7%
Hispanic 30.7% 33.1% 36.3% 37.2% 38.5% 39.0%
Other 58.8% 52.1% 59.7% 61.4% 61.5% 60.8%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in New Jersey and Nationwide

New Jersey Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 63.1% 63.0% 62.6% 60.0% 57.8% 56.4%
65 and older 71.1% 74.3% 74.6% 75.4% 73.1% 70.3%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in New Jersey and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.