The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Montana

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Montana, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Montana, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 304,912 358,689 409,590 438,350 484,403 521,180
White 286,584 330,923 374,450 394,169 428,127 452,048
Black 825 783 1,170 485 1,091 1,748
Hispanic 3,310 5,484 7,880 13,606 20,017 26,630
Other 14,193 21,499 26,090 30,090 35,169 40,753
  Household Growth: Montana Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 7.0% 10.5% 7.6% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 5.3% 8.6% 5.6% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black −58.5% 124.7% 60.3% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 72.7% 47.1% 33.0% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 15.3% 16.9% 15.9% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Montana, by Age


 

Number of Households in Montana, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 217,134 776 2,811 12,555 69,450 49 499 1,638
2000 255,545 687 4,883 18,890 75,378 96 601 2,609
2010 281,470 1,050 7,020 22,260 92,980 120 860 3,830
2020 270,788 NA 12,107 23,189 123,380 NA 1,499 6,900
2030 268,778 1,091 17,179 26,329 159,349 NA 2,838 8,840
2040 288,800 1,750 23,020 31,922 163,248 NA 3,611 8,832
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Montana, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Montana Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 67.1% 69.1% 68.0% 69.1% 68.4% 67.0%
White 68.3% 70.6% 69.8% 70.9% 70.6% 69.7%
Black NA NA NA NA NA NA
Hispanic 46.3% 48.0% 47.5% 51.4% 52.5% 51.2%
Other 47.7% 51.3% 49.5% 55.6% 52.9% 50.2%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Montana and Nationwide

Montana Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 64.1% 66.3% 64.8% 35.3% 34.7% 36.7%
65 and older 77.0% 79.0% 78.1% NA NA NA
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Montana and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.