The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Minnesota

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Minnesota, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Minnesota, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 1,644,696 1,892,951 2,087,200 2,242,823 2,419,810 2,565,986
White 1,571,633 1,737,006 1,840,610 1,888,048 1,930,026 1,919,911
Black 30,224 54,047 88,860 131,229 187,067 255,193
Hispanic 12,401 34,360 59,730 87,969 124,578 165,484
Other 30,438 67,538 98,000 135,577 178,140 225,397
  Household Growth: Minnesota Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 7.5% 7.9% 6.0% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 2.6% 2.2% −0.5% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 47.7% 42.6% 36.4% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 47.3% 41.6% 32.8% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 38.3% 31.4% 26.5% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Minnesota, by Age


 

Number of Households in Minnesota, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 1,219,664 27,501 11,671 28,346 351,969 2,723 730 2,092
2000 1,364,136 50,686 32,655 62,607 372,870 3,361 1,705 4,931
2010 1,413,660 81,950 56,330 89,870 426,950 6,910 3,400 8,130
2020 1,330,829 116,856 81,523 121,229 557,219 14,373 6,446 14,347
2030 1,213,955 161,551 107,975 153,786 716,071 25,516 16,603 24,354
2040 1,184,268 211,964 136,128 190,829 735,644 43,229 29,355 34,569
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Minnesota, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Minnesota Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 71.9% 74.6% 73.0% 71.9% 71.8% 70.7%
White 73.5% 77.5% 77.3% 77.7% 78.6% 78.6%
Black 29.3% 32.2% 25.4% 21.0% 25.6% 29.5%
Hispanic 47.8% 43.5% 44.2% 48.3% 48.1% 49.0%
Other 41.9% 51.2% 53.6% 56.6% 62.2% 66.7%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Minnesota and Nationwide

Minnesota Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 71.1% 74.2% 71.8% 69.7% 68.7% 68.1%
65 and older 74.6% 76.3% 77.4% 78.2% 78.2% 76.2%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Minnesota and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.