The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Maryland

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Maryland, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Maryland, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 1,747,067 1,981,455 2,156,250 2,227,876 2,283,849 2,291,800
White 1,276,301 1,305,660 1,289,590 1,229,689 1,135,345 1,002,088
Black 396,566 521,429 614,880 655,557 713,970 750,581
Hispanic 32,679 58,418 114,170 165,636 222,025 290,306
Other 41,521 95,948 137,610 176,993 212,509 248,825
  Household Growth: Maryland Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 3.3% 2.5% 0.3% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −4.6% −7.7% −11.7% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 6.6% 8.9% 5.1% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 45.1% 34.0% 30.8% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 28.6% 20.1% 17.1% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Maryland, by Age


 

Number of Households in Maryland, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 1,001,502 344,332 30,205 39,065 274,799 52,234 2,474 2,456
2000 1,007,826 450,250 54,652 86,546 297,834 71,179 3,766 9,402
2010 964,870 518,420 106,250 119,990 324,720 96,460 7,920 17,620
2020 831,834 504,262 149,119 145,023 397,855 151,295 16,518 31,969
2030 668,527 491,136 185,992 167,093 466,818 222,834 36,033 45,416
2040 578,358 487,283 233,037 184,445 423,730 263,298 57,269 64,380
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Maryland, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Maryland Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.1% 67.7% 67.5% 68.1% 66.7% 64.5%
White 72.4% 75.8% 76.8% 78.5% 78.7% 77.8%
Black 43.5% 51.3% 52.0% 52.6% 51.4% 49.9%
Hispanic 46.5% 48.0% 50.9% 55.0% 56.7% 58.0%
Other 63.3% 58.8% 63.6% 65.1% 64.6% 62.9%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Maryland and Nationwide

Maryland Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 63.1% 65.8% 65.0% 63.7% 60.6% 57.7%
65 and older 73.6% 75.9% 77.2% 80.0% 78.7% 77.0%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Maryland and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.