The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Maine

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Maine, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Maine, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 463,716 518,223 557,190 576,774 590,371 580,509
White 456,765 504,778 535,990 548,830 555,715 538,700
Black 1,412 1,861 4,110 5,493 7,259 9,354
Hispanic 1,880 2,517 4,470 8,560 11,344 14,066
Other 3,659 9,067 12,620 13,890 16,053 18,389
  Household Growth: Maine Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 3.5% 2.4% −1.7% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 2.4% 1.3% −3.1% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 33.7% 32.1% 28.9% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 91.5% 32.5% 24.0% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 10.1% 15.6% 14.6% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Maine, by Age


 

Number of Households in Maine, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 352,835 1,347 1,868 3,429 103,930 65 12 230
2000 387,364 1,606 2,338 8,177 117,414 255 179 890
2010 400,960 3,710 3,990 10,950 135,030 400 480 1,670
2020 364,360 4,814 7,503 10,898 184,470 680 1,058 2,993
2030 322,722 6,299 9,602 12,445 232,993 961 1,742 3,608
2040 304,013 7,301 10,675 13,571 234,687 2,054 3,391 4,818
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Maine, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Maine Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 70.4% 71.6% 71.3% 72.4% 73.6% 74.2%
White 70.7% 72.2% 72.3% 73.5% 75.1% 76.5%
Black 32.6% 37.8% 24.3% 22.1% 17.7% 12.9%
Hispanic 51.4% 42.5% 46.1% 60.2% 56.4% 46.1%
Other 53.8% 52.4% 52.2% 56.0% 59.2% 59.4%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Maine and Nationwide

Maine Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 69.7% 70.5% 69.8% 68.9% 61.7% 45.7%
65 and older 72.7% 75.3% 75.9% 78.0% 76.6% 76.1%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Maine and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.