The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Kentucky

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Kentucky, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Kentucky, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 1,375,242 1,590,351 1,719,920 1,746,633 1,814,858 1,847,884
White 1,272,150 1,440,281 1,523,230 1,502,923 1,510,598 1,476,575
Black 92,218 109,964 127,650 149,156 169,168 187,463
Hispanic 4,597 15,194 34,000 50,536 71,903 97,589
Other 6,277 24,912 35,040 44,017 63,190 86,257
  Household Growth: Kentucky Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 1.6% 3.9% 1.8% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −1.3% 0.5% −2.3% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 16.8% 13.4% 10.8% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 48.6% 42.3% 35.7% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 25.6% 43.6% 36.5% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Kentucky, by Age


 

Number of Households in Kentucky, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 975,490 71,784 4,147 5,878 296,660 20,434 450 399
2000 1,121,434 92,833 13,892 21,916 318,847 17,131 1,302 2,996
2010 1,165,410 107,740 31,730 30,500 357,820 19,910 2,270 4,540
2020 1,053,454 120,989 46,087 38,012 449,469 28,167 4,450 6,005
2030 956,788 125,682 62,435 53,659 553,810 43,486 9,468 9,531
2040 915,561 137,032 80,507 72,716 561,014 50,431 17,082 13,541
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Kentucky, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Kentucky Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 69.6% 70.8% 68.7% 68.5% 66.9% 65.0%
White 71.7% 73.8% 72.3% 73.1% 72.1% 70.7%
Black 43.4% 41.5% 39.5% 34.6% 35.1% 35.1%
Hispanic 50.3% 35.4% 35.4% 42.2% 46.0% 49.4%
Other 49.9% 48.9% 49.5% 53.8% 52.1% 50.7%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Kentucky and Nationwide

Kentucky Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 66.9% 67.9% 65.2% 63.4% 60.6% 58.8%
65 and older 78.7% 81.4% 80.8% 81.4% 79.3% 76.8%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Kentucky and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.