The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Florida

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Florida, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Florida, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 5,127,620 6,338,315 7,420,560 8,103,195 9,423,976 10,584,246
White 4,041,026 4,575,637 4,870,140 4,895,878 5,237,151 5,407,223
Black 532,173 728,931 960,220 1,102,845 1,332,013 1,550,620
Hispanic 499,861 842,583 1,333,230 1,786,705 2,425,456 3,077,379
Other 54,560 191,164 256,970 317,767 429,356 549,025
  Household Growth: Florida Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 9.2% 16.3% 12.3% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 0.5% 7.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 14.9% 20.8% 16.4% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 34.0% 35.8% 26.9% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 23.7% 35.1% 27.9% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Florida, by Age


 

Number of Households in Florida, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 2,707,956 443,951 411,394 50,821 1,333,070 88,222 88,467 3,739
2000 3,064,544 620,952 694,129 171,956 1,511,093 107,979 148,454 19,208
2010 3,231,240 808,370 1,104,660 222,920 1,638,900 151,850 228,570 34,050
2020 2,838,901 857,475 1,443,748 251,234 2,056,976 245,370 342,957 66,533
2030 2,668,862 960,628 1,854,377 327,240 2,568,289 371,384 571,079 102,117
2040 2,685,661 1,085,395 2,257,547 408,619 2,721,561 465,224 819,832 140,406
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Florida, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Florida Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 67.3% 70.1% 67.4% 66.9% 64.9% 62.9%
White 72.2% 76.4% 75.0% 76.4% 75.1% 73.2%
Black 47.4% 50.4% 48.1% 46.3% 44.7% 43.6%
Hispanic 50.4% 55.8% 54.4% 53.9% 54.2% 54.7%
Other 56.3% 56.4% 63.2% 65.1% 63.6% 62.0%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Florida and Nationwide

Florida Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 61.2% 64.6% 61.4% 59.2% 56.4% 55.6%
65 and older 81.9% 84.1% 83.0% 82.2% 78.5% 74.2%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Florida and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.