Forecasting State Homeownership Trends
Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in California, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.
Household Formation
We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.
Number of Households and Household Growth
| Number of Households in California, by Race or Ethnicity | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | |
| Total | 10,358,800 | 11,506,329 | 12,575,560 | 13,245,999 | 13,879,147 | 14,206,483 |
| White | 7,020,657 | 6,685,059 | 6,507,770 | 6,168,217 | 5,757,400 | 5,193,137 |
| Black | 720,662 | 762,441 | 806,510 | 810,898 | 821,154 | 809,882 |
| Hispanic | 1,787,651 | 2,559,512 | 3,383,970 | 3,994,778 | 4,617,286 | 5,134,887 |
| Other | 829,830 | 1,499,317 | 1,877,310 | 2,272,107 | 2,683,307 | 3,068,578 |
| Household Growth: California | Household Growth: Nationwide | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010–2020 | 2020–2030 | 2030–2040 | 2010–2020 | 2020–2030 | 2030–2040 | |
| Total | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% |
| White | −5.2% | −6.7% | −9.8% | 0.1% | 0.5% | −1.3% |
| Black | 0.5% | 1.3% | −1.4% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% |
| Hispanic | 18.1% | 15.6% | 11.2% | 22.1% | 19.2% | 17.3% |
| Other | 21.0% | 18.1% | 14.4% | 20.9% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.
Number of Households in California, by Age
| Number of Households in California, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Younger than 65 | 65 and older | |||||||
| White | Black | Hispanic | Other | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | |
| 1990 | 5,383,996 | 607,895 | 1,627,427 | 735,912 | 1,636,661 | 112,767 | 160,224 | 93,918 |
| 2000 | 5,031,629 | 637,249 | 2,322,316 | 1,297,955 | 1,653,430 | 125,192 | 237,196 | 201,362 |
| 2010 | 4,761,080 | 657,050 | 3,014,490 | 1,578,800 | 1,746,690 | 149,460 | 369,480 | 298,510 |
| 2020 | 4,039,285 | 610,900 | 3,377,223 | 1,791,143 | 2,128,931 | 199,998 | 617,554 | 480,964 |
| 2030 | 3,363,647 | 554,174 | 3,629,387 | 2,008,702 | 2,393,753 | 266,980 | 987,899 | 674,605 |
| 2040 | 3,021,835 | 529,083 | 3,784,225 | 2,229,119 | 2,171,302 | 280,799 | 1,350,662 | 839,459 |
| Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Younger than 65 | 65 and older | |||||||
| White | Black | Hispanic | Other | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | |
| 2000 | 60,344,232 | 9,972,344 | 8,293,773 | 4,728,999 | 18,748,904 | 1,835,658 | 928,629 | 627,564 |
| 2020 | 55,784,880 | 11,872,258 | 14,733,722 | 7,456,779 | 26,591,297 | 3,379,648 | 2,550,232 | 1,616,708 |
| 2040 | 48,524,107 | 13,051,680 | 19,825,205 | 10,817,807 | 33,236,589 | 5,553,598 | 6,026,735 | 3,088,951 |
Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.
Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in California, and Nationwide
Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.
Homeownership
We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.
| California Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | |
| Total | 55.7% | 56.9% | 55.9% | 55.8% | 55.3% | 54.6% |
| White | 61.8% | 64.9% | 64.3% | 64.0% | 63.3% | 61.9% |
| Black | 36.6% | 39.0% | 37.4% | 34.8% | 34.9% | 35.4% |
| Hispanic | 40.1% | 43.7% | 44.5% | 45.9% | 47.3% | 48.8% |
| Other | 54.0% | 52.9% | 55.4% | 58.3% | 58.1% | 57.0% |
| National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | |
| Total | 65.3% | 66.2% | 65.1% | 64.7% | 63.6% | 62.2% |
| White | 70.1% | 72.4% | 72.2% | 73.0% | 72.5% | 71.4% |
| Black | 45.2% | 46.3% | 44.3% | 41.9% | 41.1% | 40.6% |
| Hispanic | 43.3% | 45.7% | 47.3% | 49.0% | 50.2% | 51.3% |
| Other | 53.7% | 53.0% | 56.3% | 58.1% | 57.9% | 57.4% |
Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.
Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in California and Nationwide
| California Homeownership Rates, by Age | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | |
| Younger than 65 | 51.6% | 52.7% | 51.6% | 49.8% | 48.4% | 48.8% |
| 65 and older | 72.4% | 74.5% | 73.0% | 72.9% | 70.5% | 66.5% |
| National Homeownership Rates, by Age | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | |
| Younger than 65 | 62.3% | 63.0% | 61.6% | 59.5% | 57.5% | 56.5% |
| 65 and older | 75.8% | 78.1% | 77.5% | 78.4% | 76.0% | 73.0% |
Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.
Millions of Owners and Renters in California and Nationwide, by Age
Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.