The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Alabama

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Alabama, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Alabama, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 1,499,750 1,736,964 1,883,720 1,874,630 1,946,697 1,975,115
White 1,150,930 1,274,447 1,319,910 1,258,390 1,257,883 1,222,946
Black 330,478 411,489 470,080 500,235 540,920 565,175
Hispanic 6,670 19,263 47,310 61,384 79,054 101,871
Other 11,672 31,765 46,420 54,621 68,840 85,123
  Household Growth: Alabama Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total −0.5% 3.8% 1.5% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −4.7% −0.0% −2.8% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 6.4% 8.1% 4.5% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 29.7% 28.8% 28.9% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 17.7% 26.0% 23.7% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Alabama, by Age


 

Number of Households in Alabama, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 873,264 251,075 5,873 10,582 277,666 79,403 797 1,090
2000 962,717 334,844 17,798 28,387 311,730 76,645 1,465 3,378
2010 973,400 387,290 44,480 40,320 346,510 82,790 2,830 6,100
2020 842,680 385,901 55,865 42,038 415,710 114,334 5,520 12,583
2030 764,000 375,617 68,712 51,549 493,883 165,303 10,343 17,291
2040 721,994 382,466 81,268 63,671 500,952 182,710 20,603 21,451
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Alabama, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Alabama Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 70.6% 72.5% 69.7% 68.7% 68.0% 67.4%
White 74.7% 78.0% 76.6% 77.0% 75.8% 74.3%
Black 57.0% 57.6% 54.0% 50.0% 51.3% 52.4%
Hispanic 49.5% 44.6% 42.2% 55.3% 64.3% 71.7%
Other 54.9% 60.3% 59.4% 62.7% 62.1% 61.4%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Alabama and Nationwide

Alabama Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 67.8% 69.7% 65.9% 62.8% 61.8% 61.4%
65 and older 79.3% 81.7% 82.2% 82.9% 79.5% 77.6%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Alabama and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.