This factsheet presents Urban's Dynamic Simulation of Income Model 4 (DYNASIM4), a tool that projects the size and characteristics of the U.S. population over the next 75 years. Starting with a nationally representative sample of the US population, it ages people in the sample, simulating demographic events, economic outcomes, health and disability status, and spending on medical care and long-term services and supports.

Why This Matters

DYNASIM4 helps policymakers, researchers, and advocates make informed decisions by projecting how demographic and economic trends may unfold. The model can analyze the impact of policies related to immigration, health, employment, and more.

Key Takeaways

DYNASIM4's key features include:

• Long-term projections: DYNASIM4 runs simulations from 2007 through 2100, projecting over a 75-year horizon.
• Simulation models: To simulate individual outcomes, DYNASIM4 relies on statistical models to predict outcomes based on individual characteristics combined with Monte Carlo simulations.
• Diverse data sources: DYNASIM4’s starting sample draws from several national surveys and administrative datasets, including the Survey of Income and Program Participation, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the Summary Earnings Records, and the American Community Survey.
• Demographic and economic simulations: The model simulates life events and economic factors such as birth, death, education, family formation, health, employment status, income, government benefits, wealth, and taxes.
• Alternative policies and assumptions: DYNASIM4 can create counterfactual scenarios by adjusting assumptions or policies, helping assess the potential impacts of different policies on population and economic trends.