In 2022, California launched the $600 million Jobs First Regional Investment Initiative, calling on 13 regions across the state to develop an investment plan to advance equitable, resilient, and carbon-neutral economies. The Central Valley Community Foundation—the Sierra San Joaquin Jobs coalition lead—engaged Urban Institute to be a research partner throughout the development of the Central San Joaquin region’s investment plan. In this capacity, Urban provided local convenors with evidence to consider as they discussed solutions to advance a an equitable, climate-forward economy and eventually articulated strategies to achieve those goals.

In this baseline report, we present a data-driven and equity-oriented understanding of the baseline conditions in the four-county Central San Joaquin region, including Fresno County, Kings County, Madera County, and Tulare County. As part of this initial baseline assessment, we gathered information on the sociodemographic profile of the region; key aspects of the region’s business community, workforce, and industries; and the public health profile of the region.

This report was originally developed in August 2023 for submission to the state to meet part of the baseline requirements for the initiative. To ensure fidelity, we use the original language of the state program and local initiative. However, the name of the program has changed as of this report’s publication. In 2024, the CERF program rebranded as the Regional Investment Initiative within the California Jobs First portfolio. At the local level, Valley CERF is now known as the Sierra San Joaquin Jobs Initiative, or S2J2.

What We Found

Our findings reveal deep inequalities within the region and relative to the rest of the state:

• Roughly two-thirds of the region is designated as disinvested according to the state.
• The region is quite diverse, although the majority of residents in the region are Latinx. Compared with the rest of the state, the region has a younger population, fewer immigrants, and more adults with less formal education. Compared with households in the rest of the state, households in the Valley CERF region are more likely to have children, be larger in size, have lower incomes and higher rates of poverty, use public insurance and other public assistance at higher rates, and have less access to the internet and broadband.
• The region has seen a consistent rise in the number of businesses year-over-year, even during peak pandemic years. The majority of businesses in the Valley CERF region have fewer than 20 employees, are concentrated in Fresno and Tulare Counties, and are disproportionately owned by people who are White and male.
• The greatest number of jobs in the Valley CERF region are in government, agriculture, and the social sectors; management and service positions are most prominent. Unemployment rates have remained consistently higher in the Valley CERF region than in California overall over the last 10 years, with some variance by county.
• The largest share of currently forecasted new jobs in the Valley CERF region is expected to be in education, health care, and social services. Of the forecasted new jobs with the greatest number of opportunities, many have lower barriers to entry—such as only needing a high school diploma or equivalent—but do not pay the current two-bedroom housing wage. Of the forecasted new jobs that will likely meet or exceed the current the current two-bedroom housing wage, many will have higher barriers to entry, such as needing a bachelor’s degree or higher.
• Intensive industrial agricultural practices and the petrochemical industry in the Central San Joaquin Valley are significant contributors to environmental degradation, such as air and water pollution and soil degradation, which have negative implications for public health equity and environmental justice. Localized impacts from climate change are causing additional public health and equity challenges in the region and can worsen preexisting conditions. For example, more frequent and extreme high temperature days, water shortages, and exposure to wildfire smoke pose significant health threats to residents of the Valley CERF region.
• The population in the Valley CERF region, which is predominantly low income and Latinx, is at higher risk than the rest of the state for respiratory illness, cancer, cardiovascular disease, birth complications, and other public health concerns. Compared with other California counties, the counties of Fresno, Kings, Madera, and Tulare also have higher rates of chronic health conditions including asthma, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, depression, and valley fever.
• The health care landscape in the Valley CERF region has critical shortages and points to the urgent need for strategic interventions to enhance health care access. Two key indicators are the relatively high number of both Health Professional Shortage Areas and Medically Underserved Areas compared with other counties in the state

Why This Matters

Effective strategic planning efforts must be grounded in evidence, including data about current conditions in the region and the major forces shaping those circumstances. The findings were used to inform the coalition’s Regional Investment Plan, which contains recommendations for strategic investments the region is prioritizing to advance climate-forward industries, diversify regional economies, and ensure equitable access to high-quality jobs.