Two years ago, the US government released the first comprehensive look at student achievement in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic with the 2022 National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) scores. The results showed the largest-ever declines, and scores fell in nearly every state across all grades in reading and, especially, in math. Education policymakers and analysts frequently use NAEP scores as indicators of how well state education systems are doing, both compared with each other and with themselves over time. With the release of the 2024 NAEP scores in early 2025, looking at adjusted 2022 NAEP scores—which account for states’ differences in student demographics—can provide a baseline understanding of where students were and how much states have succeeded in reversing the declines.
Key Takeaways
To facilitate more useful cross-state comparisons, the NAEP scores have been adjusted, accounting for differences in student demographics, including gender, age, race or ethnicity, receipt of free and reduced-price lunch, special education status, and English language learner status. Comparing NAEP scores from 2019 and 2022, the findings show the following:
- The top-ranking states across the four tests are Massachusetts, Mississippi, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. Massachusetts, Mississippi, and Florida were also in the top ranking states in 2019. The lowest ranking states—which included Alaska, Maine, Delaware, Oregon, and West Virginia—were similarly stable, with Alaska, Oregon, and West Virginia scoring in the bottom ranking states in 2019.
- Many states experienced large changes in their relative performance, and nine states experienced a decline of more than 10 points between 2019 and 2022. Some of the largest declines were posted by Delaware, Minnesota, and Maryland.
- Nine states saw their relative performance increase by more than 10 points, with the largest increases occurring in Louisiana, Nevada, and Texas.
Implications
The declines in student performance captured by the NAEP were large by historical standards and in the context of how much students learn in a typical school year. The upcoming release of the 2024 scores will show how much of the decline has been reversed for students who were fourth and eighth graders last school year. This is likely to vary significantly across states, just as the declines from 2019 to 2022 did, and raise questions about why some states were able to catch up more than others. Policymakers, analysts, and others who follow the NAEP data should bear in mind a few lessons as they interpret the forthcoming 2024 data.
First, the demographic adjustments from the 2022 scores can be applied to the 2024 scores to make better comparisons across states. This adjustment can also answer questions such as whether initially higher-performing states were able to recover more of the lost learning than lower-performing states. Additionally, demographic changes from 2022 to 2024 are unlikely to predict large changes in test scores nationwide, but it will be important to monitor demographic trends at the state level. Finally, users of the NAEP data should be especially careful when calculating and interpreting socioeconomic gaps as captured by the NAEP, given the various challenges with measuring socioeconomic status in a way that is consistent across states and over time.
The demographic adjustments in this analysis are an imperfect solution to the challenges of comparing student performance across states and over time and do not capture every characteristic that matters. Those that are included have limitations, especially the use of free and reduced-price lunch receipt as the only proxy for family income. But for many purposes, looking at demographically adjusted performance is a strong starting point and can allow policymakers to make more informed decisions.