Robust Spatial Analysis of Rare Crimes

Research Report

Robust Spatial Analysis of Rare Crimes

March 1, 2004


This report describes a semi-parametric information-theoretic framework for modeling the determinants of rare events aggregated at intra-city areal units. It is used to study the effects of socio-economic and demographic characteristics of communities on the amount of violence they experience. Findings suggest some instability in the processes across types of violence and level of aggregation but also a stable predictorresource depravationfor all the types of violence. Evidence of a spillover effect of a community's resource depravation on violence in its neighboring areas is also found. Findings are discussed in light of their substantive, methodological, and practical implications.
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