The Potential Implications of Texas v. United States: How Would Repeal of the ACA Change the Likelihood That People With Different Characteristics Would Be Uninsured?

Brief

The Potential Implications of Texas v. United States: How Would Repeal of the ACA Change the Likelihood That People With Different Characteristics Would Be Uninsured?

Abstract

In Texas v. United States, the plaintiffs argue that the entire Affordable Care Act (ACA) should be invalidated due to the elimination of the individual mandate penalties under the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. In earlier work, we estimated that a finding for the plaintiffs would lead to an increase of 20 million people uninsured, a 65 percent increase in the number of nonelderly people without insurance coverage. In this follow-on analysis, we provide detail on how people with different characteristics would be affected under such a finding. We find that the increases in uninsurance would be most heavily concentrated among people with the lowest incomes (below 200 percent of the federal poverty level), young adults, families with at least one full-time worker, and residents of the South and West. These subpopulations of the United States have experienced the largest gains in insurance coverage under the ACA and consequently would be hit the hardest if the law were repealed.

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