Measuring Risk Assessment Tool Performance

Brief

Measuring Risk Assessment Tool Performance

March 17, 2021

Abstract

This brief introduces three metrics used for evaluating the predictive performance of criminal justice risk assessment tools: accuracy (or the true positive rate); calibration (which compares predicted and actual outcomes); and discrimination (a measure of relative risk). It explains how to interpret these performance measures through specific examples and touches on other relevant issues that stakeholders should take into account when assessing tool performance. 

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