The COVID-19 pandemic is causing considerable stress on state budgets because of both increasing expenditures and declining revenues. Unlike the federal government, states cannot incur deficits. In this paper, we estimate the fiscal impacts of several approaches for increasing federal Medicaid matching rates, providing state-level estimates for each approach.
This brief was corrected April 24, 2020. In the final paragraph on page 9, the second sentence now says “Applying Brookings Institution researchers’ estimates to an unemployment rate averaging 12 percent over the 2020 calendar year”; a previous version said the authors were applying the estimates to a 12 percentage-point increase in unemployment.