The administration’s fiscal year 2018 budget proposal includes specific changes in five safety net programs and a general cut in nondefense discretionary spending that could affect other programs. This analysis estimates the potential family-level impacts of those changes by applying a comprehensive microsimulation model to Current Population Survey data, with adjustments to have the data better represent the population and economy in 2018. We find that about one in five families are affected, losing an average of $1,230 in annual resources. Almost 2.9 million families are estimated to lose at least $2,500 in annual resources.

 

This brief was updated on November 17, 2017. Table 2 was edited to clarify that all the average benefit changes it lists for families are decreases. This brief was subsequently updated on December 4, 2017. Figure 7 was edited to correct mismatched bar labels and to clarify that the figure measures the poverty rate.