The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac credit risk transfer (CRT) programs have been a huge success. Starting in 2013, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) have transferred the risk on increasing amounts of reference collateral. But rising interest rates and declining origination volumes suggest that, over the next few years, the GSEs will struggle to keep CRT volumes flat. This will require the GSEs to choose between increasing their capital markets transactions and increasing CRT at the point of acquisition. Moreover, although we believe the GSEs will continue to broaden their offerings, the growth in the market is likely to come from outside the GSE space. We have already seen a notable expansion in CRT by the mortgage insurance companies and could eventually see trading in CRT indexes and the emergence of CRT issuance by banks, should they get capital relief.
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