Over the past two decades, many US core cities have relied on inflows of young, childless adult workers to fuel population growth and economic vitality. But demographic shifts, declining birthrates, and changing work patterns threaten that model. Without a more stable base of families with children, core cities risk population loss, fiscal strain, and rising inequality. This brief explains why retaining families is crucial to long-term urban prosperity and identifies the housing, education, safety, and care investments cities can make to support family-friendly growth.

Why This Matters

Cities that fail to retain families may face shrinking school systems, weaker tax bases, and increasing poverty concentration. By contrast, family retention can stabilize housing demand, sustain workforce pipelines, and strengthen local economies. This research is especially relevant for policymakers, planners, and economic development leaders in high-growth cities seeking strategies to maintain inclusive growth in the face of demographic change.

What We Found

Demographic and economic trends point to the need for cities to embrace a growth strategy focused on retaining families:

• Urban growth has depended heavily on young, childless adults. The Great Recession slowed suburbanization among millennials and Gen Z young adults, accelerating central city population growth between 2007 and 2015. This period of young adult retention and delayed childbearing coincided with measurable gains in urban income concentration and economic growth that dipped during the pandemic and that have since rebounded but at a declining rate.
• The pipeline of young adults is shrinking and becoming less reliable. US birthrates have fallen to historic lows, resulting in fewer future young adults to support core cities’ economic growth patterns. Future population growth will depend on immigration (which is uncertain and changeable), while remote work is enabling more families (especially higher-income ones) to leave cities.
• Failing to retain families now threatens cities’ long-term economic and population growth prospects. Core cities where populations begin to shrink face a vicious cycle of school closures, economic contraction, fiscal imbalance, rising poverty concentration, and depressed housing markets, which are all harder to reverse than prevent.
• Families play a critical role in long-term economic stability. Parents spend more locally than adults without children: married parents with children spend $25,000 more per year, on average, than childless married couples, and single parents spend $4,000 more per year than single childless adults. Families also support school systems, pay property taxes, invest in local businesses, and anchor future labor supply. Nearly 60 percent of young adults live within 10 miles of where they grew up, suggesting today’s children are tomorrow’s local workforce.
• Cities that retain families offer a “package” of key amenities. These include affordable family-sized housing (with three or more bedrooms), access to high-quality schools, safe and walkable neighborhoods with low crime rates and adequate green space, and reliable and affordable child care. Several core cities offer excellent policy case studies for building out these essential family-friendly amenities.

Together, these findings suggest that cities must reconsider their growth strategies. Investments in housing, education, safety, and child care that are tailored to families’ needs can yield both short-term fiscal benefits and long-term economic resilience. The benefits from attracting and retaining families with children can also improve life for lower-income families, childless adults, and elderly people, further boosting a city’s economic and fiscal vitality.

How We Did It

This research analyzes American Community Survey IPUMS data (2007–24) to examine population trends in core cities and suburbs. It also synthesizes evidence from academic research on migration, demographic change, and urban economics; draws on population projections from the US Census Bureau; and incorporates a case study of Washington, DC, to illustrate how policy choices shape family retention outcomes.

Portions of this overview were developed with the assistance of generative AI. Please see the Urban Institute’s generative AI policy.