State Tax and Economic Review

The State Tax and Economic Review is the preeminent source of data  and analysis on state tax collections. The State and Local Finance Initiative regularly collects data and information from all 50 states, uses this information to adjust national and state data from the US Census Bureau, then provides the most timely, accurate, and in-depth look at how states are faring. We examine the economic factors driving state tax collections based on data from US federal agencies like the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency.

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FEATURED

State Tax Revenues Were Strong Through2019 but Will Likely Plummet in 2020 Because of the COVID-19 Pandemic

May 26, 2020

In the fourth quarter of 2019, state tax revenues were 6.6 percent higher than in the prior year. Preliminary data show strong growth in January and February before declines in March as the economy shut down in response to the COVID-19 epidemic.

COVID-19 And The Collapsing Job Market

April 16, 2020

How rapidly is the economy collapsing in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? In just the past four weeks, total weekly unemployment insurance claims exceeded the first 50 weeks of claims in the 2008-2009 Great Recession.

State Revenue Forecasts Before COVID-19 and Directions Forward

April 2, 2020

This brief summarizes how state revenue forecasters viewed their state economies before the COVID-19 pandemic and identifies forecast inputs to watch in the coming months for signs of the magnitude and breadth of state budget turbulence.

STATE TAX AND ECONOMIC REVIEW QUARTERLY REPORTS

State Tax Revenues Were Strong Through 2019 but Will Likely Plummet in 2020 Because of the COVID-19 Pandemic

In the fourth quarter of 2019, state tax revenues were 6.6 percent higher than in the prior year. Preliminary data show strong growth in January and February before declines in March as the economy shut down in response to the COVID-19 epidemic.
May 26, 2020

Are State Tax Revenues Back to Normal Growth or Showing Early Signs of Economic Slowdown?

State and local tax revenue growth was weaker in the third quarter of 2019, but likely a return to historical averages. Growth in some economic factors has recently weakened, which may be a warning sign.​
February 24, 2020

Windfall “April Surprises” Made Up for Earlier Shortfalls; State Taxes Returned to Normal Levels in the Third Quarter

State tax revenue saw robust growth in the second quarter of 2019, mostly because of the TCJA and resulting income tax shifting. Revenue growth returned to normal levels in the third quarter of 2019.
November 26, 2019

Turbulence Continues in State Tax Revenues in the First Half of 2019, Largely Related to TCJA Federal Tax Changes

State government tax revenues rebounded in the first quarter of 2019 after declines in the fourth quarter of 2018.
September 24, 2019

State Revenues Were Weak in The Fourth Quarter of 2018; But Revenue Outlook for FY 2019 Remains Positive

State government tax revenues from major sources declined in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared with the same quarter in 2017, mostly because of declines in state income tax revenues.
July 16, 2019

State Revenues Grew in Third Quarter, but Income Taxes Face Uncertain Prospects

State government tax revenues have fluctuated wildly over the past year largely because of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in late December 2017.
March 11, 2018

Another Stellar Quarter of State Revenue Growth, But the Pace Is Slowing

Total state tax revenue topped $1 trillion for the first time in fiscal year 2018. But state officials would be wise to view recent revenue increases as a one-time windfall and anticipate slower revenue growth in the medium term.
December 18, 2018

State Tax Revenues Soar in the First Quarter of 2018

The first edition of Urban’s new State Tax and Economic Review finds total state tax revenue from all sources showed strong growth in the final quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018.
October 30, 2018

FISCAL REPORTS

State Revenue Forecasts Before COVID-19 and Directions Forward

This brief summarizes how state revenue forecasters viewed their state economies before the COVID-19 pandemic and identifies forecast inputs to watch in the coming months for signs of the magnitude and breadth of state budget turbulence.
April 2, 2020

Are States Betting on Sin? The Murky Future of State Taxation

"Sin taxes" are often viewed as budget saviors, though they play a rather small role in state budgets. Although states raise revenue from in taxes, policymakers should be mindful of these taxes' limitations.
October 8, 2019

BLOG POST

Tax Day Is Here, And State Budget Offices Share Your Fears And Hopes For A Good Return

Just like an unexpected tax bill can upend a household’s finances, big revenue swings around Tax Day can also cause havoc with state budgets.
April 15, 2019

State Revenue Picture in Post-TCJA Era: Joy, Sorrow, and Uncertainty

The Tax Policy Center’s State and Local Finance Initiative’s quarterly State Tax and Economic Review shows solid revenue growth in the third quarter of 2018 but also includes some warning signs that recent revenue gains may be short-lived.
March 12, 2019

States Enjoyed Another Stellar Quarter Of Revenue Growth; But The Longer-Term Fiscal Outlook Is Cloudy

States closed their fiscal 2018 books at the end of June on a positive note. But going forward, they have more reason for caution than optimism.
December 18, 2018