STATE TAX AND ECONOMIC REVIEW QUARTERLY REPORTS
States reported solid revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2020, but there is large variation across states and across revenue sources. Despite a more positive fiscal and economic reality than initially feared, states continue to face fiscal uncertainties and states still need to be conservative in their budget and forecasting because of the high level of uncertainty remaining.
July 7, 2021
States reported robust revenue growth in the third quarter of 2020, a reversal of steep declines in the second quarter that mostly reflects shifting income tax filing deadlines. Over a six-month period (April through September 2020), state revenues declined 2.0 percent compared to the same period one year earlier.
March 29, 2021
In the first quarter of 2020, state tax revenues were 4.2 percent higher than in the prior year. However, preliminary data indicate double-digit declines in state tax revenues in the second quarter of 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and government responses.
August 25, 2020
In the fourth quarter of 2019, state tax revenues were 6.6 percent higher than in the prior year. Preliminary data show strong growth in January and February before declines in March as the economy shut down in response to the COVID-19 epidemic.
May 26, 2020
State and local tax revenue growth was weaker in the third quarter of 2019, but likely a return to historical averages. Growth in some economic factors has recently weakened, which may be a warning sign.
February 24, 2020
State tax revenue saw robust growth in the second quarter of 2019, mostly because of the TCJA and resulting income tax shifting. Revenue growth returned to normal levels in the third quarter of 2019.
November 26, 2019
State government tax revenues rebounded in the first quarter of 2019 after declines in the fourth quarter of 2018.
September 24, 2019
State government tax revenues from major sources declined in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared with the same quarter in 2017, mostly because of declines in state income tax revenues.
July 16, 2019
State government tax revenues have fluctuated wildly over the past year largely because of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in late December 2017.
March 11, 2018
Total state tax revenue topped $1 trillion for the first time in fiscal year 2018. But state officials would be wise to view recent revenue increases as a one-time windfall and anticipate slower revenue growth in the medium term.
December 18, 2018
The first edition of Urban’s new State Tax and Economic Review finds total state tax revenue from all sources showed strong growth in the final quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018.
October 30, 2018
This brief summarizes how state revenue forecasters viewed their state economies before the COVID-19 pandemic and identifies forecast inputs to watch in the coming months for signs of the magnitude and breadth of state budget turbulence.
April 2, 2020
"Sin taxes" are often viewed as budget saviors, though they play a rather small role in state budgets. Although states raise revenue from in taxes, policymakers should be mindful of these taxes' limitations.
October 8, 2019
Opponents of additional federal aid to state and local governments have noted that overall state revenue declines have not been as bad as expected during the pandemic, thus the need for assistance has lessened. This is too simplistic an argument. While some states have enjoyed better than expected revenues, other states have not. And local governments have suffered even more.
February 22, 2021
Aid for state and local governments remains a sticking point in Congressional deliberations over additional relief to address the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Urban Institute’s data show the actual revenue losses experienced by the states are deep and widespread, if not universal.
December 10, 2020
May state sales tax receipts shrank by nearly $6 billion, or 21 percent, compared to May 2019. State stay-at-home orders, decisions to close businesses, states’ sales tax filing and payment deadline extensions, and COVID-19 cases all contributed to the freefall of sales tax revenues.
July 14, 2020
Revised forecast data from 27 states suggest tax revenues are expected to fall $34 billion short of pre-COVID-19 forecasts in FY 2020 and $80 billion short in FY 2021. Total tax revenue shortfalls for all 50 states will be roughly $75 billion in fiscal year 2020 and $125 billion in fiscal year 2021.
July 1, 2020
Preliminary April tax revenue data shows the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and government actions on state tax revenues. There is one bit of good news, but for the most part, the story ranges from bad to ugly.
June 1, 2020
How rapidly is the economy collapsing in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? In just four weeks, total weekly unemployment insurance claims were higher compared to any point in the 1990's and 2001 recessions and exceeded the first 50 weeks of claims in the 2008-2009 Great Recession.
April 16, 2020
Has the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax deduction included in the TCJA produced a mass migration from high tax states to low tax states? Despite some recent claims that it has, the data available support the view that “We don’t have any idea.”
February 10, 2020
Overall, most states ended fiscal year 2019 in a good place. However, state revenue forecasters are predicting weaker growth in tax revenues in fiscal year 2020.
October 14, 2019
Just like an unexpected tax bill can upend a household’s finances, big revenue swings around Tax Day can also cause havoc with state budgets.
April 15, 2019
The Tax Policy Center’s State and Local Finance Initiative’s quarterly State Tax and Economic Review shows solid revenue growth in the third quarter of 2018 but also includes some warning signs that recent revenue gains may be short-lived.
March 12, 2019
States closed their fiscal 2018 books at the end of June on a positive note. But going forward, they have more reason for caution than optimism.
December 18, 2018