STATE TAX AND ECONOMIC REVIEW QUARTERLY REPORTS

State Revenues Take a Hit in the Second Quarter of 2023

State Revenues Show Sluggish Growth Through the First Six Months of 2024

Total state government tax revenue collections rose 3.0 percent in nominal terms and 0.6 percent in real terms in the first quarter of 2024 relative to a year earlier Key tax revenue sources showed mixed performance. 
September 17, 2024

Beyond the Crystal Ball: State Revenue Forecasts before, during, and after the COVID-19 Pandemic

This report provides an in-depth examination of the challenges and complexities involved in state revenue forecasting across different economic phases. It spans from the post–Great Recession expansion through the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent recovery.
June 28, 2024

State Revenues Dropped in calendar year 2023

Total state government tax revenue collections rose by 4.5 percent in nominal terms and 1.8 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2023 relative to a year earlier.
May 28, 2024

State Revenues Remained Sluggish in the Third Quarter of 2023

Total state government tax revenue collections declined 1.2 percent in nominal terms and 4.3 percent in real terms in the third quarter of 2023 relative to a year earlier. The inflation-adjusted growth rates differed significantly across key revenue sources in the third quarter of 2023.
February 14, 2024

State Revenues Take a Hit in the Second Quarter of 2023

Total state government tax revenue collections declined 12.8 percent in nominal terms and 15.7 percent in real terms in the second quarter of 2023 relative to a year earlier. The inflation-adjusted growth rates differed significantly across key revenue sources in the second quarter of 2023. 
November 21, 2023

State Tax Revenues Declined in the First Quarter of 2023

Total state government tax revenue collections declined 6.8 percent in nominal terms and 11.5 percent in real terms in the first quarter of 2023 relative to a year earlier. Growth rates varied considerably among major revenue sources.
August 30, 2023

Continued Weakness and Variability in State Tax Revenues

Total state government tax revenue collections declined 0.4 percent in nominal terms and 6.4 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022 relative to a year earlier. Revenue growth rates varied considerably among major revenue sources and across states in the fourth quarter of 2022. 
May 17, 2023

State Tax Revenue Growth Cooled Off in the Third Quarter of 2022

Total state tax revenue collections increased 7.2 percent in nominal terms and 0.1 percent in real terms in the third quarter of 2022 relative to a year earlier. This is much weaker than the strong revenue growth observed in the first half of 2022.
February 23, 2023

Strong State Tax Growth Continued in the Second Quarter of 2022 but Weakened in the Third Quarter

Total state tax revenue collections increased 14.5 percent in nominal terms and 6.4 percent in real terms in the second quarter of 2022 relative to a year earlier. Preliminary data show continued but weakening year-over-year growth in overall state tax collections in the third quarter of 2022.
December 13, 2022

State Tax Revenues Still Strong, but for How Long?

Total state tax revenue collections increased 21.7 percent in nominal terms and 13.9 percent in real terms in the first quarter of 2022 relative to a year earlier. The double-digit growth in state tax revenues is from very volatile sources and is largely attributable to atypical revenue-enhancing factors.
August 23, 2022

State Revenues Surged in the Fourth Quarter of 2021, but Continued Robust Growth Is Unlikely

Total state tax revenue collections increased 24.1 percent in nominal terms and 17.2 percent in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 relative to a year earlier. Although state revenue collections have grown rapidly in the most recent months. these trends must be viewed with caution.
May 17, 2022

State Tax Revenue Volatility Continues in the Third Quarter of 2021

State and local tax revenues are growing by double digits, much faster than state and local economies. The large gap between growth in revenues versus economic activity is an indication that some of this strength is related to temporary factors or adjustments and not necessarily indicative of likely continued growth.
March 10, 2022

States Experienced Strong Revenue Growth in the Second Quarter of 2021

State tax revenues saw large swings since the onset of the pandemic, in part because of government actions and behavioral responses to mitigate virus exposure. States reported strong revenue growth in the second quarter of 2021, but that is largely because of the lower base in 2020.
December 9, 2021

Strong Tax Revenue Growth in the First Quarter of 2021, but Tax Volatility and Fiscal Uncertainties Continue

States reported strong revenue growth in the first quarter of 2021, but there is still large variation in revenue performance across states. Over a 12-month period (April 2020 through March 2021), state total tax revenues increased 0.6 percent compared to the same period one year earlier.
September 8, 2021

Solid State Revenue Growth in the Fourth Quarter of 2020, but Uneven Revenue Recovery across States

States reported solid revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2020, but there is large variation across states and across revenue sources. Despite a more positive fiscal and economic reality than initially feared, states continue to face fiscal uncertainties and states still need to be conservative in their budget and forecasting because of the high level of uncertainty remaining.
July 7, 2021

States Reported Revenue Growth in July–September Quarter, Reflecting Revenue Shifts from the Prior Quarter

States reported robust revenue growth in the third quarter of 2020, a reversal of steep declines in the second quarter that mostly reflects shifting income tax filing deadlines. Over a six-month period (April through September 2020), state revenues declined 2.0 percent compared to the same period one year earlier.
March 29, 2021

States Enjoyed Solid Revenue Growth in the First Quarter of 2020, Followed by a Freefall Drop

In the first quarter of 2020, state tax revenues were 4.2 percent higher than in the prior year. However, preliminary data indicate double-digit declines in state tax revenues in the second quarter of 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and government responses.
August 25, 2020

State Tax Revenues Were Strong through 2019 but Will Likely Plummet in 2020 Because of the COVID-19 Pandemic

In the fourth quarter of 2019, state tax revenues were 6.6 percent higher than in the prior year. Preliminary data show strong growth in January and February before declines in March as the economy shut down in response to the COVID-19 epidemic.
May 26, 2020

Are State Tax Revenues Back to Normal Growth or Showing Early Signs of Economic Slowdown?

State and local tax revenue growth was weaker in the third quarter of 2019, but likely a return to historical averages. Growth in some economic factors has recently weakened, which may be a warning sign.​
February 24, 2020

Windfall “April Surprises” Made Up for Earlier Shortfalls; State Taxes Returned to Normal Levels in the Third Quarter

State tax revenue saw robust growth in the second quarter of 2019, mostly because of the TCJA and resulting income tax shifting. Revenue growth returned to normal levels in the third quarter of 2019.
November 26, 2019

Turbulence Continues in State Tax Revenues in the First Half of 2019, Largely Related to TCJA Federal Tax Changes

State government tax revenues rebounded in the first quarter of 2019 after declines in the fourth quarter of 2018.
September 24, 2019

State Revenues Were Weak in the Fourth Quarter of 2018; but Revenue Outlook for FY 2019 Remains Positive

State government tax revenues from major sources declined in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared with the same quarter in 2017, mostly because of declines in state income tax revenues.
July 16, 2019

State Revenues Grew in Third Quarter, but Income Taxes Face Uncertain Prospects

State government tax revenues have fluctuated wildly over the past year largely because of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in late December 2017.
March 11, 2018

Another Stellar Quarter of State Revenue Growth, but the Pace Is Slowing

Total state tax revenue topped $1 trillion for the first time in fiscal year 2018. But state officials would be wise to view recent revenue increases as a one-time windfall and anticipate slower revenue growth in the medium term.
December 18, 2018

State Tax Revenues Soar in the First Quarter of 2018

The first edition of Urban’s new State Tax and Economic Review finds total state tax revenue from all sources showed strong growth in the final quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018.
October 30, 2018

FISCAL REPORTS

Surveying State Leaders on the State of State Taxes

We surveyed state budget officials to understand the fiscal situation in each state and fiscal policies under consideration. The survey findings confirm that the impact of the downturn varied significantly across states depending on their economy, tax structures, and government actions.
July 13, 2021

State Revenue Forecasts before COVID-19 and Directions Forward

This brief summarizes how state revenue forecasters viewed their state economies before the COVID-19 pandemic and identifies forecast inputs to watch in the coming months for signs of the magnitude and breadth of state budget turbulence.
April 2, 2020

Are States Betting on Sin? The Murky Future of State Taxation

"Sin taxes" are often viewed as budget saviors, though they play a rather small role in state budgets. Although states raise revenue from in taxes, policymakers should be mindful of these taxes' limitations.
October 8, 2019

BLOG POSTS

States Forecast Weaker Revenue Growth Ahead of Growing Uncertainties

Just as state governors and legislators are figuring out how to spend their unexpected budget surpluses, global events could wipe out much of those gains in fiscal year 2023. The current global geopolitical crisis, continued uncertainties related to the ongoing pandemic, high inflation, and evolving federal monetary policy could all muddle the revenue outlook for the states.
April 19, 2022

The Winners and Losers of Rising Oil Prices

With gasoline prices spiking, many state legislatures are debating whether to suspend gas taxes in an effort to provide some relief to consumers. But higher fossil fuel prices have other important consequences for states. The big winners are energy producing states such as Alaska and North Dakota where production taxes, known as severance taxes, are an important part of their budgets.
April 1, 2022

Five Reasons Why States Should Proceed with Caution Despite Soaring Revenues

The recent surge in state tax revenues is largely attributable to factors such as the higher inflation, the boost in spending on taxable goods, the robust stock market, the record number of initial public offerings (IPOs), and anticipation of (possible) federal tax hikes. The longer-term outlook for state budgets remains uncertain.
February 8, 2022

Why States and Localities Need More Federal Aid

Opponents of additional federal aid to state and local governments have noted that overall state revenue declines have not been as bad as expected during the pandemic, thus the need for assistance has lessened. This is too simplistic an argument. While some states have enjoyed better than expected revenues, other states have not. And local governments have suffered even more.
February 22, 2021

Congress Needs to Understand State Tax Revenue Declines When Drafting COVID-19 Legislation

Aid for state and local governments remains a sticking point in Congressional deliberations over additional relief to address the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Urban Institute’s data show the actual revenue losses experienced by the states are deep and widespread, if not universal.
December 10, 2020

The COVID-19 Effect: State Sales Tax Receipts Shrank $6 Billion in May

May state sales tax receipts shrank by nearly $6 billion, or 21 percent, compared to May 2019. State stay-at-home orders, decisions to close businesses, states’ sales tax filing and payment deadline extensions, and COVID-19 cases all contributed to the freefall of sales tax revenues.
July 14, 2020

COVID-19 Pandemic Could Slash 2020-21 State Revenues by $200 Billion

Revised forecast data from 27 states suggest tax revenues are expected to fall $34 billion short of pre-COVID-19 forecasts in FY 2020 and $80 billion short in FY 2021. Total tax revenue shortfalls for all 50 states will be roughly $75 billion in fiscal year 2020 and $125 billion in fiscal year 2021.
July 1, 2020

COVID-19 and Government Actions Caused State Tax Revenues to Plunge in April

Preliminary April tax revenue data shows the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and government actions on state tax revenues. There is one bit of good news, but for the most part, the story ranges from bad to ugly.
June 1, 2020

COVID-19 and the Collapsing Job Market

How rapidly is the economy collapsing in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? In just four weeks, total weekly unemployment insurance claims were higher compared to any point in the 1990's and 2001 recessions and exceeded the first 50 weeks of claims in the 2008-2009 Great Recession.
April 16, 2020

We Don’t Know if the SALT Cap Is Driving Away Residents of High-Tax States

Has the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax deduction included in the TCJA produced a mass migration from high tax states to low tax states? Despite some recent claims that it has, the data available support the view that “We don’t have any idea.”
February 10, 2020

Fiscal 2019 Was a Strong Revenue Year for Most States but 2020 May Be Less Robust

Overall, most states ended fiscal year 2019 in a good place. However, state revenue forecasters are predicting weaker growth in tax revenues in fiscal year 2020.
October 14, 2019

Tax Day Is Here, and State Budget Offices Share Your Fears and Hopes for a Good Return

Just like an unexpected tax bill can upend a household’s finances, big revenue swings around Tax Day can also cause havoc with state budgets.
April 15, 2019

State Revenue Picture in Post-TCJA Era: Joy, Sorrow, and Uncertainty

The Tax Policy Center’s State and Local Finance Initiative’s quarterly State Tax and Economic Review shows solid revenue growth in the third quarter of 2018 but also includes some warning signs that recent revenue gains may be short-lived.
March 12, 2019

States Enjoyed Another Stellar Quarter of Revenue Growth; but the Longer-Term Fiscal Outlook Is Cloudy

States closed their fiscal 2018 books at the end of June on a positive note. But going forward, they have more reason for caution than optimism.
December 18, 2018