State Tax and Economic Review

The State Tax and Economic Review is the preeminent source of data and analysis on state tax collections. The State and Local Finance Initiative regularly collects data and information from all 50 states, uses this information to adjust national and state data from the US Census Bureau, then provides the most timely, accurate, and in-depth look at how states are faring. We examine the economic factors driving state tax collections based on data from US federal agencies like the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Federal Housing Finance Agency.

CONTACT: Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate, Urban Institute

Reports

State Revenues Grew in Third Quarter, but Income Taxes Face Uncertain Prospects
State government tax revenues have fluctuated wildly over the past year largely because of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in late December 2017. Overall, year-over-year growth in state tax revenues was strong in the third quarter of 2018 but weaker than the growth observed in the final quarter of 2017 and the first half of 2018.

Another Stellar Quarter of State Revenue Growth, But the Pace Is Slowing
Total state tax revenue topped $1 trillion for the first time in fiscal year 2018, a 7.8-percent gain over 2017. But much of this record revenue growth was the result of tax payments in response to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. State officials would be wise to view recent revenue increases as a one-time windfall and anticipate slower revenue growth in the medium term. 

State Tax Revenues Soar in the First Quarter of 2018
Total state tax revenue from all sources showed strong growth in the final quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018. The largest increases were in individual income tax revenues. Economic factors driving state revenue were all positive in the first quarter of 2018. However, large fiscal uncertainties lie ahead in response to federal tax changes, the Wayfair decision, and state responses to both.

Blog posts

Tax Day is Here, and State Budget Offices Share Your Fears and Hopes for a Good Return
State budget officers are scrambling to figure out what revenues will look like this year. With states still adapting to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and an uncertain economy in some parts of the country, this work is particularly difficult this year.

State Revenue Picture in Post-TCJA Era: Joy, Sorrow, and Uncertainty
Much of the recent revenue growth came from increases in personal income tax revenues in late 2017 and the first half of 2018, but those revenues fell sharply in December 2018 and January 2019, according to preliminary data

States Enjoyed Another Stellar Quarter of Revenue Growth; But the Longer-Term Fiscal Outlook is Cloudy
States closed their fiscal 2018 books at the end of June on a positive note. But they shouldn’t bank on the good times lasting forever. In fact, they have more reason for caution than optimism going forward.