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North Dakota’s budget basics
According to the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO), North Dakota’s total expenditures in fiscal year (FY) 2020 were $6.9 billion, including general funds, other state funds, bonds, and federal funds. NASBO reported that total expenditures across all states in FY 2020 were $2.3 trillion, ranging from $4.7 billion in Wyoming to $337.7 billion in California.
Each state allocates spending and taxes differently among different levels of governments, and local governments often administer programs with state funds, so combined state and local government data show a more complete picture of individual benefits and contributions when comparing states.
Per the US Census Bureau, North Dakota’s combined state and local direct general expenditures were $9.2 billion in FY 2018 (the most recent year census data were available), or $12,131 per capita. (Census data exclude “business-like” activities such as utilities and transfers between state and local governments.) National per capita direct general expenditures were $9,801.
North Dakota’s largest spending areas per capita were elementary and secondary education ($2,379) and public welfare ($2,040). The Census Bureau includes most Medicaid spending in public welfare but also allocates some of it to public hospitals. Per capita spending is useful for state comparisons but is an incomplete metric because it doesn’t provide any information about a state’s demographics, policy decisions, administrative procedures, or residents’ choices.
North Dakota’s combined state and local general revenues were $10.4 billion in FY 2018, or $13,769 per capita. National per capita general revenues were $10,071. North Dakota uses all major state and local taxes. After federal transfers, North Dakota’s largest sources of per capita revenue from typical sources were charges ($1,726), such as state university tuition and highway tolls, and property taxes ($1,649). However, North Dakota’s largest source of per capita revenue in 2018 was severance taxes, which tax the extraction of natural resources such as oil and natural gas. North Dakota’s per capita severance tax revenue was $2,805 in 2018. Severance tax revenue is extremely volatile and can quickly rise and fall with the price and production of natural resources.
North Dakota’s politics
Governor Doug Burgum, a Republican, was elected in 2020 with 66 percent of the vote. The next gubernatorial election is in 2024.
Republicans control both the House of Representatives (80 Republicans to 14 Democrats) and Senate (40 Republicans to 7 Democrats), with veto-proof majorities in both houses. Control of the governor’s mansion and each house of the legislature gives Republicans a trifecta in North Dakota. Members of both the House and Senate serve four-year terms. Roughly half the legislative seats are up for election in 2022, and the other half are up for election in 2024.
North Dakota’s budget institutions, rules, and constraints
North Dakota uses a biennial budget. North Dakota has the least constrictive budget process in the country: the state does not have a balanced budget requirement, any tax and expenditure limits, or any limits on authorized debt and debt service.
(Note: Some states have informal budget institutions that constrain overall spending growth or a specific expenditure’s growth.)
North Dakota’s recent fiscal debates
- North Dakota uses federal taxable income as the starting point for individual income tax. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) made significant changes to federal taxable income, and these changes “flowed through” to North Dakota’s tax. Because of how the TCJA’s changes interacted with North Dakota’s income tax, some North Dakota families with several children are now paying more in state tax. North Dakota’s legislature has made no significant efforts to reform the state’s individual income tax since the TCJA was enacted. The House did pass legislation in 2019 that reduced state income taxes and replaced the revenue with money from the state’s Legancy Fund (supported by severance tax revenue), but the bill died in the Senate.
- North Dakota had the most tax revenue growth of any state from the Great Recession through the end of 2018. In 2019, North Dakota lead all states in annual tax revenue growth. This tax revenue growth was driven almost entirely by its severance tax revenue. In 2017, severance tax revenue accounted for 17 percent of North Dakota’s state and local general revenue, by far the highest total of any state. (The next-highest states were Alaska and Wyoming with 5 percent; only three other states had severance tax revenue account for 2 percent or more of general revenue.) Although the severance tax revenue lets North Dakota keep other taxes low, it also creates challenges. The volatility of severance tax revenue requires states to have flexible budgeting arrangements, other readily exploitable revenue sources, or significant rainy-day funds to accommodate unforeseen changes in severance tax revenue flows.
North Dakota’s current budget
North Dakota enacted its FY 2020-2021 biennial budget in May 2019. The budget included $14.7 billion in total spending and $4.9 billion in general fund spending over the two-year period. Governor Burgum did not release a supplemental budget proposal, and the state did not make any significant budget changes in calendar year 2020.
Governor Burgum released his FY 2022-2023 biennial budget proposal in December 2020 and gave his State of the State address in January 2021. Over the two-year period, the governor proposes increasing total spending to $15 billion (aided in part by federal transfers from the CARES Act) but reducing general fund spending to $4.8 billion. The state’s fiscal picture is complicated somewhat by its reliance on volatile revenue from oil production.
For more on North Dakota’s budget, see
North Dakota’s economic trends
North Dakota’s per capita income (per the Bureau of Economic Analysis) was $59,388 in 2020, ranking 18th among the states. It was below the national average of $59,729, but above the Plains regional average of $56,321. The state’s median household income (five-year estimate) was $64,894 in 2019, ranking 18th among the states and above the national average of $62,843. North Dakota’s poverty rate was 10.7 percent in 2019 (five-year estimate), below the national rate of 13.4 percent.
Although North Dakota’s averages tell a story about the entire state, North Dakota is composed of diverse localities. For example, the city of Grand Forks’s median household income was $50,076, and its poverty rate was 18.5 percent; the city of West Fargo’s median household income was $85,120, and its poverty rate was 6.4 percent.
North Dakota’s unemployment rate has historically been below the national average, particularly following the Great Recession, and in recent years it has been among the lowest in the country. (See how COVID-19 is affecting state employment and earnings data.)
Unemployment rates (like other economic indicators) often vary significantly by race and ethnicity. However, North Dakota does not have enough Black or Latino residents for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to break down its unemployment rate by race.