Demographic Change in the US and its Implications for Housing and Mortgage Lending
Changing demographic trends will have major implications for housing and mortgage lending, according to papers written by our two December Data Talk presenters. Rolf Pendall discussed his analysis indicating that over the next 15 years, most new households will be renters, a reversal of trends over the past 20 years. Of the net new homeowners between now and 2030, approximately half will be Hispanic. Walt Scott’s paper shows that a growing number of homeowners in the US—including a quarter of Hispanics—live with nonborrower relatives or partners with significant income. This additional income helps borrowers to hedge against job loss and makes them more likely to stay in their home when their mortgage is underwater. This suggests that considering nonborrower income in underwriting can help low-income and minority families without generating excessive risk. Jim Carr commented on both papers and added his own perspective, including the implications for people of color.
Laurie Goodman, director, Housing Finance Policy Center, Urban Institute
Rolf Pendall, director, Metropolitan Housing and Communities Policy Center, Urban Institute
Walter Scott, senior economist, Fannie Mae
Jim Carr, Coleman A. Young endowed chair and professor of urban affairs, Wayne State University