In this report, we update our previous analysis by comparing the most recent CMS forecast, released in July 2015, with the 2010 Affordable Care Act (ACA) baseline forecast. The 2015 forecast incorporates the Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act, which permanently eliminated the sustainable growth rate system for setting physician payment rates in Medicare. Using the 2015 forecast, we find that projected national health spending for 2014 to 2019 had fallen by about $2.6 trillion since the 2010 (ACA) baseline reflecting large declines in Medicare, Medicaid, private insurance, and other health spending projections. It appears that the United States continues to be on track to spend much less on health care over the next several years than projected in late 2010.
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