The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) would reduce tax revenue by nearly $1.5 trillion over the 10-year budget window from FY2018 to FY2027. Analysis by the Tax Policy Center shows that the tax cuts would tilt heavily toward the highest fifth of the income distribution, largely the result of cuts to the corporate income tax, other reductions in taxation of business income, and reductions in the estate tax. Very few tax-lowering changes in the bill are targeted at families with children—and none at families with very young children. This approach seems to ignore research emphasizing that early childhood lays the foundation for lifelong skills, behaviors, and health. In the early years of the TCJA, on average, families with children receive only modest benefits from the tax bills. By 2027, families with children in the lowest two-fifths of the income distribution would owe more tax under the House version of the TCJA than under current law, and families in the middle income quintile would receive only a very small average tax cut. By 2027, all but the highest income families would owe more tax under the TCJA than under current law. Similar results characterize the Senate version of the TCJA.
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