How Would the President's 2019 Budget Proposal Shift Our Fiscal Path?

Brief

How Would the President's 2019 Budget Proposal Shift Our Fiscal Path?

Abstract

In this brief, we use a framework that clarifies the sources of changes in resources proposed in the president’s fiscal year (FY) 2019 budget and how they relate to each other and to the nation’s fiscal health. Comparing 2028 to 2017 using this framework shows that the president’s priorities are to increase annual real spending on Social Security and Medicare by $840 billion and interest on the debt by $390 billion, essentially freeze all real growth in Medicaid spending and subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and reduce all other spending by about $150 billion. Because the economy is projected to grow by close to one-quarter over this period, the proposed changes would continue and compound a massive shift already scheduled in current law, placing almost total priority on the elderly and bondholders and away from children, low- and moderate-income households, and non-elderly households.

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