Estimating the Potential Impacts of the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2018 Budget Proposal on Safety Net Programs Using Microsimulation

Technical Paper

Estimating the Potential Impacts of the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2018 Budget Proposal on Safety Net Programs Using Microsimulation

Abstract

The administration’s FY 18 budget proposal includes specific changes in five safety net programs, and a general cut in non-defense discretionary spending that could affect other programs.   This analysis estimates the potential family-level impacts of those changes by applying a comprehensive microsimulation model to Current Population Survey data, with adjustments to have the data better represent the population and economy in 2018.   We find that about one in five families are affected, losing an average of $1230 in annual resources.  Almost 2.9 million families are estimated to lose at least $2,500 in annual resources.

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