PROJECTForecasting State and National Trends in Household Formation and Homeownership


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  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Wyoming
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Wisconsin
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in West Virginia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Washington
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Virginia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Vermont
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Utah
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Texas
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Tennessee
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in South Dakota
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in South Carolina
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Rhode Island
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Pennsylvania
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Oregon
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Oklahoma
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Ohio
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in North Dakota
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in North Carolina
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New York
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New Mexico
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New Jersey
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in New Hampshire
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Nevada
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Nebraska
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Montana
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Missouri
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Mississippi
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Minnesota
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Michigan
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Massachusetts
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Maryland
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Maine
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Louisiana
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Kentucky
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Kansas
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Iowa
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Indiana
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Illinois
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Idaho
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Hawaii
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Georgia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Florida
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in District of Columbia
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Delaware
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Connecticut
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Colorado
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in California
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Arkansas
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Arizona
  • The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Alaska

  • Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

    Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in District of Columbia, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

    Household Formation

    We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

    Number of Households and Household Growth

    Number of Households in District of Columbia, by Race or Ethnicity
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Total 250,508 248,308 266,630 293,220 321,749 358,672
    White 84,354 83,524 106,950 122,609 143,285 167,277
    Black 151,566 138,419 125,890 122,253 118,537 117,183
    Hispanic 9,866 13,991 18,040 28,744 34,679 42,246
    Other 4,722 12,374 15,750 19,614 25,248 31,964
      Household Growth: District of Columbia Household Growth: Nationwide
    2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
    Total 10.0% 9.7% 11.5% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
    White 14.6% 16.9% 16.7% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
    Black −2.9% −3.0% −1.1% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
    Hispanic 59.3% 20.6% 21.8% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
    Other 24.5% 28.7% 26.6% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Number of Households in District of Columbia, by Age


     

    Number of Households in District of Columbia, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
     
      Younger than 65 65 and older
    White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
    1990 68,964 113,229 8,750 3,965 15,390 38,337 1,116 757
    2000 71,135 102,719 12,957 10,934 12,389 35,700 1,034 1,440
    2010 92,060 95,030 16,360 14,190 14,890 30,860 1,680 1,560
    2020 103,713 84,659 25,741 17,436 18,896 37,594 3,002 2,177
    2030 119,501 79,876 29,940 22,389 23,784 38,661 4,739 2,860
    2040 138,706 83,177 35,694 28,070 28,572 34,007 6,553 3,895
    Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
     
      Younger than 65 65 and older
    White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
    2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
    2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
    2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in District of Columbia, and Nationwide

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Homeownership

    We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

    District of Columbia Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Total 39.0% 40.8% 42.0% 43.8% 45.3% 46.2%
    White 47.4% 48.7% 48.5% 52.5% 54.5% 55.5%
    Black 35.8% 38.9% 38.8% 37.3% 36.6% 36.2%
    Hispanic 18.6% 23.3% 31.4% 31.9% 35.6% 36.6%
    Other 32.2% 28.6% 35.7% 47.4% 47.6% 47.6%
    National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
    White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
    Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
    Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
    Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

    Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in District of Columbia and Nationwide

    District of Columbia Homeownership Rates, by Age
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Younger than 65 34.7% 30.9% 31.7% 35.3% 42.2% 49.1%
    65 and older 53.8% 58.4% 60.5% 58.6% 57.9% 59.3%
    National Homeownership Rates, by Age
     
      1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
    Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
    65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

    Millions of Owners and Renters in District of Columbia and Nationwide, by Age

    Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
    Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

    Research Areas Housing finance
    Policy Centers Housing Finance Policy Center