District of Columbia

PROJECT

Forecasting State and National Trends in Household Formation and Homeownership

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in District of Columbia, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in District of Columbia, by Race or Ethnicity

	1990	2000	2010	2020	2030	2040
Total	250,508	248,308	266,630	293,220	321,749	358,672
White	84,354	83,524	106,950	122,609	143,285	167,277
Black	151,566	138,419	125,890	122,253	118,537	117,183
Hispanic	9,866	13,991	18,040	28,744	34,679	42,246
Other	4,722	12,374	15,750	19,614	25,248	31,964

	Household Growth: District of Columbia			Household Growth: Nationwide
	2010–2020	2020–2030	2030–2040	2010–2020	2020–2030	2030–2040
Total	10.0%	9.7%	11.5%	5.9%	6.4%	5.4%
White	14.6%	16.9%	16.7%	0.1%	0.5%	−1.3%
Black	−2.9%	−3.0%	−1.1%	9.9%	10.1%	8.8%
Hispanic	59.3%	20.6%	21.8%	22.1%	19.2%	17.3%
Other	24.5%	28.7%	26.6%	20.9%	20.0%	18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in District of Columbia, by Age

Number of Households in District of Columbia, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity

	Younger than 65				65 and older
	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	White	Black	Hispanic	Other
1990	68,964	113,229	8,750	3,965	15,390	38,337	1,116	757
2000	71,135	102,719	12,957	10,934	12,389	35,700	1,034	1,440
2010	92,060	95,030	16,360	14,190	14,890	30,860	1,680	1,560
2020	103,713	84,659	25,741	17,436	18,896	37,594	3,002	2,177
2030	119,501	79,876	29,940	22,389	23,784	38,661	4,739	2,860
2040	138,706	83,177	35,694	28,070	28,572	34,007	6,553	3,895

Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity

	Younger than 65				65 and older
	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	White	Black	Hispanic	Other
2000	60,344,232	9,972,344	8,293,773	4,728,999	18,748,904	1,835,658	928,629	627,564
2020	55,784,880	11,872,258	14,733,722	7,456,779	26,591,297	3,379,648	2,550,232	1,616,708
2040	48,524,107	13,051,680	19,825,205	10,817,807	33,236,589	5,553,598	6,026,735	3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in District of Columbia, and Nationwide

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

District of Columbia Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity

	1990	2000	2010	2020	2030	2040
Total	39.0%	40.8%	42.0%	43.8%	45.3%	46.2%
White	47.4%	48.7%	48.5%	52.5%	54.5%	55.5%
Black	35.8%	38.9%	38.8%	37.3%	36.6%	36.2%
Hispanic	18.6%	23.3%	31.4%	31.9%	35.6%	36.6%
Other	32.2%	28.6%	35.7%	47.4%	47.6%	47.6%

National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity

	1990	2000	2010	2020	2030	2040
Total	65.3%	66.2%	65.1%	64.7%	63.6%	62.2%
White	70.1%	72.4%	72.2%	73.0%	72.5%	71.4%
Black	45.2%	46.3%	44.3%	41.9%	41.1%	40.6%
Hispanic	43.3%	45.7%	47.3%	49.0%	50.2%	51.3%
Other	53.7%	53.0%	56.3%	58.1%	57.9%	57.4%

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in District of Columbia and Nationwide

District of Columbia Homeownership Rates, by Age

	1990	2000	2010	2020	2030	2040
Younger than 65	34.7%	30.9%	31.7%	35.3%	42.2%	49.1%
65 and older	53.8%	58.4%	60.5%	58.6%	57.9%	59.3%

National Homeownership Rates, by Age

	1990	2000	2010	2020	2030	2040
Younger than 65	62.3%	63.0%	61.6%	59.5%	57.5%	56.5%
65 and older	75.8%	78.1%	77.5%	78.4%	76.0%	73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in District of Columbia and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Research Areas

Housing finance

Policy Centers

Housing Finance Policy Center