The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in District of Columbia

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in District of Columbia, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in District of Columbia, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 250,508 248,308 266,630 293,220 321,749 358,672
White 84,354 83,524 106,950 122,609 143,285 167,277
Black 151,566 138,419 125,890 122,253 118,537 117,183
Hispanic 9,866 13,991 18,040 28,744 34,679 42,246
Other 4,722 12,374 15,750 19,614 25,248 31,964
  Household Growth: District of Columbia Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 10.0% 9.7% 11.5% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 14.6% 16.9% 16.7% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black −2.9% −3.0% −1.1% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 59.3% 20.6% 21.8% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 24.5% 28.7% 26.6% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in District of Columbia, by Age


 

Number of Households in District of Columbia, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 68,964 113,229 8,750 3,965 15,390 38,337 1,116 757
2000 71,135 102,719 12,957 10,934 12,389 35,700 1,034 1,440
2010 92,060 95,030 16,360 14,190 14,890 30,860 1,680 1,560
2020 103,713 84,659 25,741 17,436 18,896 37,594 3,002 2,177
2030 119,501 79,876 29,940 22,389 23,784 38,661 4,739 2,860
2040 138,706 83,177 35,694 28,070 28,572 34,007 6,553 3,895
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in District of Columbia, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

District of Columbia Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 39.0% 40.8% 42.0% 43.8% 45.3% 46.2%
White 47.4% 48.7% 48.5% 52.5% 54.5% 55.5%
Black 35.8% 38.9% 38.8% 37.3% 36.6% 36.2%
Hispanic 18.6% 23.3% 31.4% 31.9% 35.6% 36.6%
Other 32.2% 28.6% 35.7% 47.4% 47.6% 47.6%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in District of Columbia and Nationwide

District of Columbia Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 34.7% 30.9% 31.7% 35.3% 42.2% 49.1%
65 and older 53.8% 58.4% 60.5% 58.6% 57.9% 59.3%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in District of Columbia and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.