The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Virginia

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Virginia, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Virginia, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 2,290,962 2,699,599 3,055,920 3,221,879 3,397,882 3,512,948
White 1,813,668 2,006,379 2,140,970 2,130,960 2,099,965 2,005,608
Black 390,012 489,114 565,150 604,028 654,602 692,735
Hispanic 41,295 82,071 160,240 229,101 304,404 389,618
Other 45,987 122,035 189,560 257,791 338,911 424,987
  Household Growth: Virginia Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 5.4% 5.5% 3.4% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White −0.5% −1.5% −4.5% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 6.9% 8.4% 5.8% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 43.0% 32.9% 28.0% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 36.0% 31.5% 25.4% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Virginia, by Age


 

Number of Households in Virginia, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 1,462,626 319,710 39,450 43,824 351,042 70,302 1,845 2,163
2000 1,589,614 406,860 78,072 112,983 416,765 82,254 3,999 9,052
2010 1,638,950 468,370 151,210 169,830 502,020 96,780 9,030 19,730
2020 1,475,931 455,500 210,291 221,784 655,029 148,528 18,810 36,006
2030 1,295,146 451,387 258,222 277,131 804,819 203,215 46,182 61,780
2040 1,199,195 468,802 313,457 329,637 806,412 223,933 76,161 95,351
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Virginia, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Virginia Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 66.3% 68.1% 67.2% 66.9% 64.9% 62.3%
White 70.7% 74.0% 73.9% 74.2% 73.1% 71.2%
Black 49.1% 51.3% 49.8% 48.2% 46.1% 44.1%
Hispanic 40.4% 44.4% 46.3% 52.7% 51.5% 50.0%
Other 59.4% 54.2% 61.7% 63.1% 62.6% 61.6%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Virginia and Nationwide

Virginia Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 63.6% 65.3% 63.9% 61.6% 57.7% 54.8%
65 and older 78.1% 80.1% 80.2% 81.4% 79.6% 76.8%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Virginia and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.