The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Vermont

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Vermont, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Vermont, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 210,324 240,389 256,440 262,369 267,779 263,173
White 206,700 233,385 246,330 248,295 247,689 236,825
Black 624 907 1,520 1,221 2,130 3,202
Hispanic 1,394 1,578 2,610 5,014 7,069 9,175
Other 1,606 4,519 5,980 7,839 10,891 13,971
  Household Growth: Vermont Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 2.3% 2.1% −1.7% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 0.8% −0.2% −4.4% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black −19.7% 74.4% 50.4% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 92.1% 41.0% 29.8% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 31.1% 38.9% 28.3% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Vermont, by Age


 

Number of Households in Vermont, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 164,097 552 1,228 1,487 42,603 72 166 119
2000 183,324 838 1,341 4,163 50,061 69 237 356
2010 188,440 1,380 2,280 5,200 57,890 140 330 780
2020 170,726 777 4,501 6,376 77,568 NA NA 1,463
2030 150,011 1,827 6,461 8,371 97,678 303 608 2,520
2040 141,125 3,063 7,949 10,800 95,700 139 1,226 3,171
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Vermont, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Vermont Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 68.7% 70.6% 70.8% 72.4% 73.2% 74.2%
White 69.1% 71.2% 71.7% 73.7% 74.4% 75.0%
Black NA NA NA NA NA NA
Hispanic 47.8% 59.9% 51.7% 43.9% 41.7% 38.5%
Other 32.9% 49.3% 52.8% 53.8% 75.1% 96.9%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Vermont and Nationwide

Vermont Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 67.4% 69.0% 68.5% 23.2% 36.1% 39.8%
65 and older 73.5% 76.7% 78.2% 80.5% 37.6% 14.3%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Vermont and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.