The Future of Household Formation and Homeownership in Utah

Forecasting State Homeownership Trends

Trends in household formation and homeownership have important implications for states’ housing markets and broader economies. They also reveal who has benefited from homeownership and who has been shut out of this critical wealth-building tool. To better understand the past and future of household formation and homeownership in Utah, we look at trends by age, race, and ethnicity. Our projections, using data from decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, show what will happen over the next two decades if current policies stay the same. For more details on the methodology, see our report.

Household Formation

We look at changes in the number of households (defined as one or more people who live in a housing unit) for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine household formation trends for people younger than 65 and people ages 65 and older.

Number of Households and Household Growth

Number of Households in Utah, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 536,411 700,739 877,660 1,046,412 1,278,668 1,512,961
White 496,296 621,488 747,780 856,630 1,001,914 1,137,244
Black 3,577 4,673 7,580 11,159 17,889 25,842
Hispanic 22,396 46,300 83,780 118,790 170,116 228,055
Other 14,142 28,278 38,520 59,833 88,750 121,820
  Household Growth: Utah Household Growth: Nationwide
2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040
Total 19.2% 22.2% 18.3% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4%
White 14.6% 17.0% 13.5% 0.1% 0.5% −1.3%
Black 47.2% 60.3% 44.5% 9.9% 10.1% 8.8%
Hispanic 41.8% 43.2% 34.1% 22.1% 19.2% 17.3%
Other 55.3% 48.3% 37.3% 20.9% 20.0% 18.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Number of Households in Utah, by Age


 

Number of Households in Utah, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
1990 401,526 3,115 20,171 12,864 94,770 462 2,225 1,278
2000 506,275 4,228 43,291 25,694 115,213 445 3,009 2,584
2010 599,390 6,940 77,960 34,690 148,390 640 5,820 3,830
2020 650,136 9,944 108,246 52,181 206,495 1,215 10,544 7,652
2030 723,012 15,648 149,086 76,730 278,902 2,241 21,029 12,020
2040 808,412 22,895 187,820 104,668 328,832 2,947 40,235 17,152
Number of Households in the United States, by Age, Race, and Ethnicity
 
  Younger than 65 65 and older
White Black Hispanic Other White Black Hispanic Other
2000 60,344,232 9,972,344 8,293,773 4,728,999 18,748,904 1,835,658 928,629 627,564
2020 55,784,880 11,872,258 14,733,722 7,456,779 26,591,297 3,379,648 2,550,232 1,616,708
2040 48,524,107 13,051,680 19,825,205 10,817,807 33,236,589 5,553,598 6,026,735 3,088,951

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020 and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Household Racial and Ethnic Composition, by Age, in Utah, and Nationwide

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeownership

We look at changes in homeownership for four racial and ethnic groups: Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black, and people of other races, which includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people (all of whom are non-Hispanic). We also examine trends in the number of homeowners and renters younger than 65 and people 65 and older.

Utah Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 68.2% 71.6% 70.4% 71.4% 70.1% 69.1%
White 69.8% 74.1% 73.8% 75.1% 74.4% 73.8%
Black 35.4% 40.5% 35.2% 24.6% 25.7% 27.9%
Hispanic 48.9% 50.9% 50.6% 54.8% 55.5% 56.5%
Other 49.0% 54.4% 55.9% 59.4% 58.9% 58.6%
National Homeownership Rates, by Race or Ethnicity
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Total 65.3% 66.2% 65.1% 64.7% 63.6% 62.2%
White 70.1% 72.4% 72.2% 73.0% 72.5% 71.4%
Black 45.2% 46.3% 44.3% 41.9% 41.1% 40.6%
Hispanic 43.3% 45.7% 47.3% 49.0% 50.2% 51.3%
Other 53.7% 53.0% 56.3% 58.1% 57.9% 57.4%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Notes: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values. The “Other” category includes Asians, American Indians, Alaska Natives, Native Hawaiians, other Pacific Islanders, and multiracial people.

Homeowners and Renters, by Age, in Utah and Nationwide

Utah Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 64.5% 68.5% 67.4% 67.3% 65.4% 64.1%
65 and older 84.5% 86.4% 84.1% 86.3% 84.6% 83.8%
National Homeownership Rates, by Age
 
  1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Younger than 65 62.3% 63.0% 61.6% 59.5% 57.5% 56.5%
65 and older 75.8% 78.1% 77.5% 78.4% 76.0% 73.0%

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.

Millions of Owners and Renters in Utah and Nationwide, by Age

Sources: Decennial censuses, the American Community Survey, and Urban Institute projections.
Note: Values for 2020, 2030, and 2040 are projected values.